S&P 500 bull run coming to an end with the risk-reward being all risk A look at the 1W timeframe. If the pattern holds since 2009, then the S&P is due for a sizeable correction in the coming months. As you can see in the chart, every time it touches the top of the blue channel it ultimately ends up making a correction of 15-20% back to the middle of the channel....
The S&P looks like it lost support of the rising wedge pattern it formed since last year. You can see that it broken down below last week and then made a retest. It looks now like the support line has turned to resistance, which is bearish. It looks like the correction from the ATH may not be done yet and there is further downside. It will be confirmed once the...
Here is a simple analysis using 4 moving averages and a regression channel start on March 24, 2020. VWMA 20 days (shown as a band with SMA 20 in the middle), SMA 50, 100, and 200 days. The S&P is at a make or break moment. It broke below the regression channel on Monday and is hang on the edge of it today. You can also see that it found support on the 100 day...
Lost linear regression channel (black) that started on March 24, 2020. Still in the regression channel from Dec 26, 2018 to Feb 19, 2020. Will it bounce back up to regain black channel, or use the blue channel as support? That noticeable unfilled gap around 400 is still waiting to be filled, which could come into play if it loses the blue channel. 4H
S&P still clearly inside the regression down channel off the Sept 3 ATH. The good news is that it made a higher high today, but right now it looks like it is forming a bearish rising wedge pattern. That pattern also seems to align with closing the gap from Monday and the resistance line formed off the recent peaks. It is also the 1.236 fib level off Tuesday...
In this crazy market it is hard to tell if S&P hitting the top of the channel is enough to make it go into a bear market or go full bubble. Most of the time over history it has retreated with a 10% or more correction and then rallied again for another test. Maybe this will be like the 1920's or the 1990's where the markets go crazy. 1W 1D
We all know that the markets has been in a bubble for a while, but the questions has always been what the pin would be. Could the Evergrande be that pin? The idea of a 2008 crash like crash in China clearly has the market spooked on top of COVID, inflation, and Fed tapering. This timing also perfectly coincides with the S&P touching off the top of its 2009 trading...
IVV- Testing resistance in channel. Likely, good shorting opportunity.
Just shy of touching resistance from 2009 rally. Also exceeded 100% rally from 2020 low and right at the same 106% seen during 2009 rally. COVID rally My guess at Elliott waves
All of the fiscal stimulus has allowed the S&P to firmly regain the rising wedge pattern it started way back in 2009. As long as the government keeps the printing presses flowing and interest rates low, it looks like this rally could go at least to 5300 (another 20% or so), maybe even 5600-5700. It is amazing when you look at like this. Investing during the COVID...
Will S&P be able to punch through the fib level? Has not had any problems yet. 1D with waves 1W from the great depression The trend line comes out in a different place when I switch to the 1M, but looks like it makes more sense.
Just sharing my "go to" chart for the S&P 500, which includes rising wedge patterns and fib levels since 2018. Enjoy. 4h
SPX500USD (SPX500)- Daily non log chart- Rising WedgeSPX500USD (SPX500)- Daily non log chart- Rising Wedge
A look at the big picture on the log scale at the 1M time frame.
Just something to ponder on. I have no idea if the pattern will hold compared to 2009-2010. The 1 day looks more like it could bounce
This is my latest and best attempt at an Elliott wave count for the S&P. Rather than just guess at waves, I prefer to use fib levels to help identify them. Assuming that I have wave 1 correct, then I see a wave 3 with impulse that is closing in on it final subwave 5. That hopefully should bring us to a solid correction for a wave 4 before making a long push for...
SPX500 wedging itself into a rising wedge.