No, not really. Only 3 of 7 divergences signaled recessions in the last 50 years. Besides, some recessions did not have any divergence. So data doesn't support the recession is coming thesis. Red flag -> Divergence with recession following Green flag -> Divergence w/o recession ? -> No divergence signal before recession (This post is in response to some...
In general, Monday began quite peacefully. China has been non-aggressive in its response to Trump who has signed into law a bill that supports pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. And it seemed that we were waiting for another boring day. However, Trump once again showed why we prefer the sale of the dollar for a quite long time. He began the day by accusing...
In our previous review, we noted that the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector will be the main event. The ISM index of business activity in the services sector reached 54.7 in October (analysts expected 53.5, before 52.6). As a result, the USD strengthened. “I think it’s a good time though to pause...and that’s what I am...
ISM Manufacturing Index report announced on Tuesday was the main event last week. Recall, the Index fell to its lowest level since June 2009 - 47.8 points (below 50 means decrease inactivity). As a result, the dollar has undergone the most massive one-day sales over the last month. However, the sale did not receive further development. The markets were waiting...
Labor Day in the US and Canada led to a relatively calm day on the financial market. But today everything can change radically. On the one hand, Hurricane Dorian threatens to become the most powerful in history. This means that the potential damage could also become the most significant. Yesterday we promised to show the way how to make money on this kind of...
This simple but elegant indicator is nothing but the ISM Manufacturing Index represented with a baseline of 45. Once the ISM line breaches the baseline it indicates a recession is guaranteed if not already under way. This indicator has perfectly predicted the last seven recessions and is currently trending down towards the baseline as we speak. Like, share and...
Weekly no log with 100EMA, RSI & MACD
yield indicator
Yield indicator
Going hand in hand with the sharp drop in US Treasury yields, which now price in a more than 95% chance of the US central bank FED cutting interest rates at least once by December 2019, the USDJPY followed and dropped below the crucial support region around 108.70. The drop lower continued into the start of the week with the ISM Manufacturing following the US...
VERTICAL VIEW of my previous post. Watch ISM declining data. If it continues to decline, recession is imminent as shown by the values on the chart and correlations to past market moves.
ISM decline in recent months indicate more SPX weakness is ahead
So this play is a complex spread that pits a strong machinery company and a strong retail / cons. disc. company against two weak chemical makers. While the play may initially not make much sense, the alpha here is generated from the comments that companies in these sectors made in the last ISM and NMI reports. Expected weakness in chemicals as input prices...
SPX yoy performance follows ISM Source: Raoul Pal youtu.be
USDCAD has been extremely bullish lately, on extremely strong manufacturing data today. It has retraced all of its losses which were caused by CAD strength due to hopes for successful NAFTA negotiations. Currently, Trump has made numerous hints that Canada may not even be a part of NAFTA anymore, and the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has fired back...
The manufacturing index still looks like it will have a steady positive correlation and increase over time. The potential for pro-longed growth is especially true given that we live in the age of additive and automated manufacturing. Even when it was negative correlated a year ago, it still ended up recouping any negatives. The index as an indicator of the economy...
Before ISM short pattern for NZDUSD ratio 1:1