Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC. Nonetheless,...
Commercial real estate "..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose. Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US...
Interest rate bull and bear markets can run for many years before they change direction. Currently the yield curve is the lowest it has ever been and is still declining. The long term charts above are strongly suggesting that the bear market in interest rates ended during the pandemic crash low in 2020 after 39 years of decline. This will have major...
TBT is shown here on a weekly chart. It transitioned froma downtrend into the present trend up two years ago with the initiation of the rate hikes to cut down inflation by hitting its knees. Inflation was the direct result of the money printing and stimulus as part of the federal response to the complications of covid and lockdowns. Price is now ascending in a...
Yen weakness despite... BoJ Exited negative rates regime Increasing geopolitical uncertainty Gold at historic highs of 2430 In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen. However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese...
The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ; even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro. The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000.
Hey everyone!! Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line" Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!! Please let me know what...
Periods of high #interestrates, low #unemployment, high #inflation, and an inverted 10/2 #yieldcurve since 1976. What do you notice? An increased probability of a stock market recession and high unemployment within months of cutting interest rates and a reverted yield curve?
Goldman Sachs, one of the very few giant financial services companies left, is intending to do the first mega buyback program that will exceed One TRILLION dollars into 2025. Gasp. So the chart shows the initial buybacks commencing and the support of its stock price during the very dicey sideways trend. The company reports earnings Monday, April 15. Enough...
What a difference 11 hours makes. The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening. 10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent. This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT. TVC:TNX
Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do. The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though. 10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone. 30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment. #FederalReserve TVC:TNX
source: EUROSTAT The inflation rate in the Euro Area declined to 2.9% year-on-year in October 2023, reaching its lowest level since July 2021 and falling slightly below the market consensus of 3.1% . Meanwhile, The Core Rate, which filters out volatile food and energy prices, also cooled to 4.2% in October; marking its lowest point since July 2022. However,...
Both ISM Manufacturing Index and Non-Manufacturing Index vs. GDP YoY% for the US economy. ISM Manufacturing: Yellow ISM Non-Manufacturing: Blue GDP YoY%: Green/Red ISM Manufacturing currently signaling contraction with a level below 50 and the momentum seems lower. Non-Manufacturing Index is likely to follow the same path although currently signaling growth,...
Interesting what one day can do for a chart! The trend is still up but #interestrates look fairly weak today. The 1 & 2 year are not so bad but the 10 & 30 year look weaker. TVC:TNX US #Dollar still looks okay though, at least for now. TVC:DXY
Let's look at rates for a bit. Short term #yield is slowly climbing the trend line. 1 & 2 Year. Longer term #interestrates look similar to the short term. 10 & 30 Year. US #Dollar not as strong as bond yields but it is trading similar to them. TVC:TNX TVC:DXY
I'm looking for the FED to stick with the dovish sentiment and for EURUSD to grab liquidity above us, if we get some new hawkish FED news/numbers we will most likely head down and sweep liquidity around 107.9 and lower
- The Bank of England (BOE) decided to deliver its #inflation medicine in a bigger dose at their recent monetary policy committee meeting. The bank made the shock decision to raise borrowing costs a half percentage point, taking the official rate to 5% ; double the size of the increase anticipated by most economists. BoE hiking interest rates to 5% , it adds...
The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR unchanged at 5%-5.25%, as expected, but signaled rates may go to 5.6% by Year-End if the Economy and Inflation do not Slow down more. It is the first pause in the tightening campaign following ten consecutive hikes that lifted borrowing costs by 500bps to the highest level since...