Having picked up on a the large previous descending wedge I have taken the price action after breakout from last wedge and multiplied it by a degree of 0.372 as this was roughly how much smaller the current wedge is. just testing things out really. Have overlayed the new price action onto current Wedge breakout and have taken a look at the Fib numbers...
Would have liked to have seen the market rise faster from the current low to the MA, and then it hit my 15 min Bollinger trend line and went down again (note that all my Bollinger trend lines come from either the 15 min 2 hour or 4 hour charts). Somebody will say it wasn't my 15 min Bollinger trend line but an obvious retracement level. Fine OK you win. The next...
I'm going short because lower Bollinger line was broken through and looking back at last years climb this looks like it was a really bad sign. Cancelling all my what to watch lists and observation and going with the usual stuff head and shoulder formations for now. If price breaks through MA I'll review.
My earlier postings worked. $10,200 was a key low. We got the MACD trough. We got the Williams down arrow. All we need now is a good break through the MA. Back test for yourselves what happens after that. Key support now $10,200. If gets busted then another leg down. Market may have risen to fast and MA been too high for any good support.
Low reached of $10,200 looks promising as last trough (in red) on the MACD looks like a trough this time but MA may have needed to have been a bit more within reach. No Williams down arrow as yet. This is an update on my previous What to watch posting.
I'm looking for a close on 2 hour bar to hold above $10,574 on lower Bollinger line and Williams arrow down to give support. There're a number of previous scenarios that could play out back up through MA or down to close above $10,308.
Unusual Bollinger band formation cited. Price could take its time to reach $12,130 or be quick and sudden. Could then be timeframe for hedge end wave one. Will be watching pattern in Williams arrows for top and for price support as well as MA, MACD, and lower Bollinger band.
Well it broke through my $11,600 target but yet to smash it. Would be looking to break $12,130 after that. May go down towards MA before trying again. Not expecting the next Williams arrow to be down, and especially not making a lower low than the last arrow down. That would be a surprise.
The best entry point to BUY = Medium term
I expect a drop of about 7000 dollars for 1 Bitcoin. I can not say exactly when this will happen, maybe the price will fall right away, but maybe first it will reach $ 19,000 / In general, we look and wait, it's better to place limit orders or wait for the impulse to go down.
In addition, a little later, at...
I don't think it makes sense to use normal TA on Bitcoin because it cannot be compared to any asset... except itself, so I've overlayed the early 2013 bubble (daily candles) on the current run (weekly). We'll peak on CME futures and then an exchange CEO will get kidnapped or something. I don't know. Nobody does. Good luck.
Still long as of my last linked trade:
This analysis is based on Open interest, Commitment of Traders, and the price swing.
As you can see on the link above, the commercials have been adding short positions since October 24, 2016 (since the price spike). If you look closely to the OI, there was a recent drop meaning that they are...