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FeelsStrategy Updated 

#Bitcoin Log Regression 👀 The orange line, as in the previous cycle, offers strong resistance. 💡I think CRYPTOCAP:BTC will stay at the current mark for another month. After that, we go to the correction, most likely it will not be a deep correction, but rather a consolidation. This is indicated by overbought and seasonality. ⛏️ And also the capitulation of...

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BTC often follows the technology sector of the stock market. Below you can see the Spearman-rank correlation, which better shows us the moments when two assets start to move in different direction What now? Now the NASDAQ is starting to slip because the market is overestimating interest rate expectations, after talks that there will be no lowering this year....

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#Bitcoin Gaussian channel 🐍 Well, halving. This was the first cycle when we reached 1.0 on the Fibonacci mark, instead of the usual 0.786. The adoption of ETFs, namely the purchase of 200,000 bitcoins by institutions, distorted the demand curve this time. What's next with Bitcoin after #halving? I expect a little calm before the storm. Most likely, we will not...

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#Bitcoin Keltner Channels 📈 No one doubts that this cycle will be similar to a 3-wave one. In the last post, I said that I do not expect a fall in February and March, and even closer to the halving, the 2nd wave will begin to fade. 💡That's what happened. Now we can see how the correction begins, I do not expect strong drops below 50k now, but rather a transition...

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#Bitcoin distance from Bull Market Support Band As I said all last month, the mark of 74k was our local peak, you can even tell a mid-cycle peak. 📝The geopolitical upheaval was just the last drop of what was supposed to happen. Taking into account the other earlier mentioned facts soon, I do not expect new maximums to be taken, I think it will happen in a few...

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#Gold / CRYPTOCAP:BTC (Digital Gold) correlation 🪙 Recently, we have seen a record-strong positive correlation. This is visible in the Spearman correlation, there are much more green bars in the 2-month period. Both of these assets play the role of a defensive asset🛡️ 💡Why is gold growing? The main reasons are geopolitical instability, macroeconomics, and the...

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ETH reached local resistance in the form of the red zone of the channel, faster than the last cycle. What does this tell us? The consolidation before the next move may be longer. 🤔Most will say that ETH has not reached ATH yet, so it should go up right now, I can say that ETH mostly lags in taking past highs and does it sometime after that like Bitcoin...

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#Bitcoin distance from BMS Below is the oscillator, which shows how far the price has moved away from the bull market support. Mostly when we are in the 2-3 year of the cycle, the mark on the oscillator 40 acts as resistance, which indicates a mid-cycle peak. Can it be different this time?🤔 Let's imagine that the CRYPTOCAP:BTC ETF inflow will be greater and...

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I posted a Log Regression when #Bitcoin was 15k. I publish now when it is 62k. So CRYPTOCAP:BTC has already done x4. What now? Shall we break the ATH? Let's consider the pros and cons. This is why yes: ➕Increasing global liquidity. ➕So far, positive flow from ETFs. Here's why not: ➖Strong overbought ➖Previously, there was no ATH breakout before the...

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CRYPTOCAP:BTC / SP500 Correlation #Bitcoin and the SPX mostly correlate (move similarly). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas. 📝What do we have now? Although they are now maintaining a positive correlation, the latest movement of the stock market is even stronger than that of...

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#Bitcoin Keltner Channels 📈 The current BTC cycle is often compared to the cycle of 2020 or 2016. Well, let's consider what if this cycle is different. In the first cycle, we did not have substantive and protracted corrections. The second cycle had a more pronounced mid-cycle peak, and a longer consolidation after it, and even then the 2nd wave of movement. The...

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When to buy CRYPTOCAP:ETH ? Consider the well-known Fear & Greed + WV Keltner channel. I don't like DCA, I consider it too simple a strategy, but it is suitable for many who do not have all the liquidity at once + its simplicity will be an advantage for many. So when the market feels Fear and the price enters the green zone, it is a favorable time. Right now,...

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There is not much time left for BTC to undergo a significant correction before the halving. Let me remind you that halving significantly reduces the liquidity for sale from miners ⛏️ In recent days, we have had positive inflows from BTC - ETF, which also puts pressure on the price in a positive direction. It should also be remembered that, in general, an increase...

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We continue to analyze Bitcoin using the Gaussian channel (see previous posts) 👀 📝Bitcoin is consolidating in the region of 40k, following the correction from the resistance line that I mentioned earlier. I further believe that a retest of the 37k zone is possible since there is still enough time for halving. On the wave trend oscillators, a red signal 🔴 is also...

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BTC has not had a healthy correction for about 3 months now. All this time, the price did not test the BMS or drop below 50 on the RSI. What we see now is a bearish signal of a break below 50 and a retest from below. And also a break of the trend line and a retest from below🐻 As I wrote earlier, the ETF will start to have an impact not immediately, but closer to...

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Will the adoption of #ETF be able to break the historical pattern?🤔 In each cycle of bitcoin, the price before the halving could not overcome the 0.78 Fibonacci mark, which acted as resistance. Now the price has again approached this historical resistance, which is about ~50k. 💡In my opinion, we are unlikely to break through this mark, because the fundamental...

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The volatility of the asset can be viewed relative to the width of the Bollinger lines, and it is also convenient to use the BBW oscillator for this. ✍️We have mainly 3 waves of increasing volatility before the main bull run. The first is mostly the bottom of the market, and the second or third is the midcycle peak. If one wave was quite large, the next one is...

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Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance. In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs. Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull...