As most of you guys know, I really enjoying analysing the Canadian dollar since the fundamentals behind it are really fascinating.
Most of the people think that when something influences the USD or the west as a whole, the CAD should follow it as well. But it doesn’t work this way and history has given as a few examples such as the recession back in the 2000’s...
Here is a bigger picture :
The Major EURUSD Downtrend started in March 2008 until now. we hit a Double bottom at around 1.0450 Area and bounced a bit but the major upper line of the major downtrend is being tested again.
NOTE:
EURO Zone is an Export oriented zone. They need a lower EURO for them to be able to sell their products outside EU. Chinese companies...
Bitcoin bulls are having an uphill task sustaining the price above $11,000.
Another slide below $11,000 could easily plunge to retest support at $10,500.
Bitcoin price is holding above $11,000, however, it has a bearish inclination in the short term. The trading on Thursday saw buyers revive the bullish momentum upwards but hit a wall at $11,200. A reversal...
Most of the day the Yen/USD traded lower breaking the 200 Moving Average through the day - first time its done this since this ramp up started.
Highlighted in hot pink you can see the points of control notice that most the business was done at lower prices today , but closed higher into the S&P / Nasdaq close.
Divergence remains - still time in this trade,...
I want to point out two things in this post:
1. The elevated implied volatility before earnings on blue chips stocks is per se a risk factor due to high call open interest and the following reduction in implied volatility post earnings.
2. The SKEW index is signaling increasing tail risk.
The first point:
As I’ve pointed out in recent posts, high open...
Key Dates
2020
Mid/Late August to Early/Mid September for 14k
Mid/late September to Early December for 18k also first pullback of the new bull cycle.
2021
Sometime January back to 2 year trend line created
February 2019.
Mid April the restart of the bull run after correction
The chart on the right represents 30 year treasury bonds. The chart on the left is TLT, an ETF that expresses a trade in treasury bonds.
The way to profit most is probably via call options on TLT. I am looking at the 172 strike in August.
The other way is to be long futures. I am long ZB1! futures contract. The negative is the minimum size is $181,000. So for...
Here is a method to track current trends and spot reversals.
This technique combines two separate indicators, the Bollinger Bands (BB) and the T-Line .
Bollinger Bands contain three parts. First is a 20-period simple moving average, the middle band ( purple line ). Second is the upper band and third is the lower band ( blue lines ). Both of the upper and...
It looks like we have run into a consolidation right before the earnings. It may be good news for the investors because the company was clearly overbought lately, so the correction did give us some space for the future jump.
In my experience, when a weak resistance line meets such a strong support line, the first one does not stand a chance. You can clearly see...
Bitcoin price action (BTCUSD at Coinbase) has been resounding, as it rebounds above $11k mark. Bulls are on the verge of 1-year highs after decisive breakout of long-lasting range with the stern bullish candle yesterday (refer daily chart), while both leading & lagging indicators are in line with the prevailing upswings.
On a wider perspective, BTC has spiked...
According to last week’s JPY COT report we can see something interesting. Even though the JPY is overall dominating with its long size contracts, we can see that there is a sudden increase with the short ones as well.
The size of the third and final downtrend wave is determined by how fast the dollar can recover and therefore we have 2 possible scenarios for...
Price is still in an uptrend
Price Touched the lower trendline
At 15mins chart price created double bottom with long wick rejection
2nd candle taking out first candle
Price crossing 15mins EMA and finding support at previous resistance level
Price at support level which was previous resistance level
The gold monthly chart appears to be forming a classic cup and handle pattern. I expect a pullback that forms the handle.
Price action has been on a nice run since August 2018. Now, with a new all time high achieved today. I think the bulls can take a rest for a little while. The new higher high has confirmed a bull market. Long positions do not have to keep...
Placing a fib from July 2008 high ($147.27) to April 2020 low (-$37.67). There's been some nice alignments. .618 has been a solid bounce. .382 a solid rejection.
Marking up the top and bottom of the candle that took us below zero, crashing oil down to -£37.67, then finding the midpoint, takes us to $1.97. That's the potential low and very possible if we get a...
1. As can be seen VIX has once again formed a bullish wedge which is ready to breakout in the very near future
2. Another way to look at this is by combining the 2 wedges which is forming a triangle ( see attached line chart). This is also showing signs of a breakout.
3. 50d SMA for the PUT/ CALL ratio is at EXTREME lows; last seen in 2009 ! This is...
This chart shows the price movement of gold and silver vs. real 10-year treasury bond yields, which are now at nearly -1%. As you can see, gold has a *very* strong inverse correlation with real 10-year bond yields. Silver is correlated too, but it has long periods of under- or out-performance vs. gold. One way to play this is to wait for silver to get far away...
Pay attention to silver at 25.12-26.23. This is the September 2013 high, 2011 and 2012 support, and the 38.2% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high. If this freight train is going to stop for at least a short while, then this would be a good range to provide resistance.
