I firmly believe the Dow transports are an important leading metric to identifying the overall strength in the economy. Since the highs in Feb, transports have not participated in the rally to the upside. What this tells me under the hood of this economy we are seeing weakness.
The chart posted is that of the DJT . As everyone is focused on the qqq and sp 500 and the flight to safety in tech DO NOT ASK ME WHY BTW . The markets are now in the HOPE stage. This is usually followed by Fear and then Despair . and then the last stage Denial . that is the BOTTOM
Technical review of the stock market after the FOMC rate hike and Jerome Powell speech. All in the video - I'm tired and will update tomorrow.
Similar pattern appearing on the DJT. Will we see the upside move completed or will it fail like it did in 2018/2019.
Dow Jones is still trading withing the range of the past few days which also places it within the range it was in back when we had a major decline following a disappointing CPI report back in the beginning of June. This puts the market in a position that could see a potential breakout in either direction. Can we possibly see economic data that propels the Dow...
If you believe in Dow Theory then the fact that transports have not been able to make a new high compared to the August Swing highs, should make you doubt the new highs seen in the industrials. Normally this is a sign of underlying weakness so the expectation would be for further weakness to come in general equities.
DJT, a leading economic indicator, is breaking out of a long falling wedge pattern that targets the all-time high daily candle body closes. This is yet another piece of the puzzle suggesting a much better second half for this year. Bollinger bands squeezing so tight and multi-month divergences are also indicating that it won't be a small move.
Something is wrong! NOWHERE to hide except cash. Even XLP staples crash last week. Now DJT is showing yet another warning sign. It just broke the very crucial 14k support, completing a head & shoulder pattern. Measured move may send it down to the 11k to 10300 zone. It is now at 13500 my green pivot box where the red dotted median of my PITCHFORK is located. If...
This is bad! Stocks are falling even when DXY dollar index & TNX 10-yr yield are retracing. The Dow Jones Transportation, a leading indicator for the stock mkt & the economy, just zipped through the 14k key support, down 7.41%. All stock indices had a capitulation-like move Wednesday 18May, the worst since the pandemic days. Even defensive staples, household...
The JNK ETF looks like it is heading further down still -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow through after closing at a low -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF looks a tad bearish too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG looking to fail support, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF continue down draft->...
Very quickly before the market opens... The JNK ETF is heading further down for lower low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to follow down continuing the candle -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF broke support -> Bearish for equities The VALUG failed the resistance, with a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF gave...
With the current global situation where there are day by day developments, the Leading Indicator panel offers similar dichotomy... The JNK ETF is heading further down -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is likely to push down in a somewhat limited fashion -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF appears to be bouncing up -> Bullish for equities The VALUG looking for...
Interesting... in the last couple of weeks, as the Leading Indicators signaled a retracement, it appears that it may be time for a technical bounce... JNK broke down as expected, and exceeded target. Last week's candle had a long tail recovery, and this current week is forming a rebound. MACD still in bear territory. IWM, DJT and VALUG all seemed to have...
SPX - DJT -CORRELATION CONFIRMATION - DEMAND IS NOT THERE! The SPX and DJT are highly correlated, this is to say that the correlation indicates the underlying demand for goods requiring transportation. In a previous chart using the same tickers I showed you that there was no confirmation of an economic 'slowdown', this time we do! NOTE where I have made...
Dow Theory Sell Signal is Active. __________________________________________________________ The Primary Global Index used for Confirmation: The Baltic Dry Index has collapsed from 5829 to 1764. The Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. The...
Reviewinig the Leading Inidcator Weekly panel... The JNK has a Sell signal, retraced and may break down to a lower low target, as previously expected. Not yet happening, but with a lower high, the bias is closer to the downside. The IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) also has a Sell signal and lower high. Waiting for a lower low confirmation with a break of support. The...
Are transports at tipping point? They are market leading indicator. See Dow Theory
Leading Indicator panel update: JNK - the topping pattern continues to play out for JNK, looking for a lower low, after the last lower high. IWM - The Russell 2000 ETF failed a breakout late last year, and is about to break down of a support given the bearish weekly candle. DJ Trans - a system Sell signal, and likely downside off the Dark Cloud Cover...