DJT,a leading economic indicator,again topping out bef SPX w H&S
Something is wrong! NOWHERE to hide except cash. Even XLP staples crash last week.
Now DJT is showing yet another warning sign. It just broke the very crucial 14k support, completing a head & shoulder pattern. Measured move may send it down to the 11k to 10300 zone.
It is now at 13500 my green pivot box where the red dotted median of my PITCHFORK is located.
If 14k is not reclaimed next few days, I think DJT may be making a 5 waves further down to 12300 where the black VWAP from the pandemic low will intersect. After that it will make a counter trend wave 4 rally back to retest 14k (wave 4 should not cross wave 1) before the final wave 5 dump to my yellow 11k to 10300 zone.
Last time DJT topped-out on 17Sept2018, 16 months before SPX’s peak on 13Jan2020. This time DJT peaked on 2Nov2021. This scenario suggest that recession is already underway & we just dont see it yet, especially if SPX gets rejected again at 4100/4200 again after this week’s expected oversold rally & breaks below 3800. Worst scenario may see SPX further down at 3520 or even 3200.
This time may be different coz we are in uncharted territory with so many headwinds like rising inflation, FED doing whatever it takes to raise interest rates to fight inflation, the invasion & the energy & food crisis it created & also the China lockdown. This time there will be no stimulus & no FED saving the stock market.
Not trading advice. Minimize risks & trade with CAUTION!
Now DJT is showing yet another warning sign. It just broke the very crucial 14k support, completing a head & shoulder pattern. Measured move may send it down to the 11k to 10300 zone.
It is now at 13500 my green pivot box where the red dotted median of my PITCHFORK is located.
If 14k is not reclaimed next few days, I think DJT may be making a 5 waves further down to 12300 where the black VWAP from the pandemic low will intersect. After that it will make a counter trend wave 4 rally back to retest 14k (wave 4 should not cross wave 1) before the final wave 5 dump to my yellow 11k to 10300 zone.
Last time DJT topped-out on 17Sept2018, 16 months before SPX’s peak on 13Jan2020. This time DJT peaked on 2Nov2021. This scenario suggest that recession is already underway & we just dont see it yet, especially if SPX gets rejected again at 4100/4200 again after this week’s expected oversold rally & breaks below 3800. Worst scenario may see SPX further down at 3520 or even 3200.
This time may be different coz we are in uncharted territory with so many headwinds like rising inflation, FED doing whatever it takes to raise interest rates to fight inflation, the invasion & the energy & food crisis it created & also the China lockdown. This time there will be no stimulus & no FED saving the stock market.
Not trading advice. Minimize risks & trade with CAUTION!