Is the once Goldman Sachs "slam dunk sell" turning into a layup buy?
I cannot hate the initial call from many investment bank analysts it to sink to $1,000 because, in 2013, I issued a $1,035 bear-call. However, I do ridicule these analysts for unwillingly (either through ignorance or moral hazard) understanding the dynamics of gold.
But in 2014 I turned rather...
With markets on edge and Japanese inflation data this week, those short the yen are hoping the Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko " Kamikaze " Kuroda, will further increase the balance sheet through more quantitative easing. Because when everything else fails, he'll try to go all in.
Or will he? Essentially, his brilliant idea to implement negative rates, or NIRP,...
CADJPY has been setting up to become a great selling opportunity on a macro-standpoint for the following reasons:
I was looking for a drop well-before today's action:
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Fundamentals in a nutshell:
CAD is highly correlated with WTI crudeoil, both on a fundamental and technical level. There still is no tangible...
As the graph analysis can show the pair has been trending in very nice downside trend-channel since June 2015 and the levels provided by the Fibonacci retracement, which I have applied from the peak of December 2014 to the low of April 2015 (around 126.100), seem to offer relevant level of support/resistance.
I personally entered in a long position on 11/01/2016...
Japanese central bank is announcing the rate decision and commentary regarding monetary easing in just over 12 hours.
The USD/JPY has rebounded from the 116 lows and looks to continue upwards trend.
There are fundamental reasons we should expect Yen to weaken:
Taro Aso (Japanese Finance Minister) has changed his cautious rhetoric from scepticism regarding...
A descending triangle has just formed hinting for a continuation of that bearish trend. According to fundamentals the swiss franc is facing a very weak period with surprisingly low retail sales data, compared to japanese yen benefiting from a positive balance of payments. Price should target the first meaningful support level around 115.50.
We have many interesting elements in the USDJPY chart.
The monthly time at mode uptrend expired and triggered a violent short which I took and published here.
This still demands possible downtrend continuation towards the monthly mode at 101-102 in the coming months.
The interesting point is that the weekly has an active uptrend signal with time left to hit the...
Dollar-yen bulls may be forced to take pause after central bank decisions, from each respective currency, give traders something to chew on:
The FOMC minutes yesterday were nothing short of redundant. I am beginning to think it is the same speech month-after-month, but financial outlets took whatever they could to spin it as hawkish as possible.
That should...
I think it's worth it to try a short trade here, aiming to capture the following targets:
Target #1: 116.39
Target #2: 112.95
Target #3: 102.48 (monthly uptrend mode from 2011 to date)
Market sell at the open, place stops for each position at 123.96, and hold the trade until the end of November.
If we don't hit target #2 by then or earlier, and we're not...
Today's open may very well have hit the lows as it took a strong bounce from there.
Other Yen pairs displaying the same price action.
Further confirmation could come from break of upper trend line, aggressive positioning from current levels against the lower trend line. BOJ up this week, could be the catalyst.
The weekly index chart, with monthly MTPC overlay shows a vivid picture, that of a constantly weak yen.
We are right at a longterm downtrend mode resistance from the historical high back in 2007*, and the last test of it resulted in the start of a very volatile monthly downtrend.
We have this mode resistance as the first obstacle for new highs, as well as the low...
In my last chart I analyzed the profile chart in the weekly.
In this installment I depict the interesting levels to monitor in the daily chart .
We have a weekly downtrend expiring on Friday, this is bullish for this pair since it implies that it's possible to retest the mode from where the 10 week downtrend launched, at 124.221.
If we manage to move above...
In my previous idea I located the key levels on chart, and was biased towards a short.
Recently, it started being obvious that the Yen was weakening, so I decided to go long GBPJPY.
I still think the dollar will remain weak for the rest of the year, possibly until June 2016, nothing has changed, but the
Nikkei is implying that it will rally asap. Tim West's...
Similarly to TLT, I expect a rally to emerge today, which if moving past the trigger level at 122.545 will lead to an advance into the 124.096 to 126.042 area.
I'll attempt shorting the first target with a tight stop, and if stopped I'll wait to short it higher. It's unlikely to see the 2nd target hit, since the 1st one sits right below the 8 week downtrend mode...
Technical Analysis:
A small Head and Shoulders Pattern is evident on the chart. A break of 91.600 exposes the first target at 90.700.
93.00 has of late proved to be quite the Resistance Level as the pair failed to achieve a daily close above this handle with two notable failed attempts on the 9th and 12th of October daily candles.
It is important to note...
The analysis of multiple timeframes in GBPJPY leads me to believe that we might see a bullish breakout emerge from this juncture.
If we base on the relative strength readings, obtained from my ratio analysis, pairing gold vs each currency, we'd be biased towards a bullish trade setup here. Although rgmov doesn't signal a new 44 bar high in any timeframe, the...
With commodities collapsing and the BOJ announcing further easing and loose monetary policy, AUD/ JPY provides the best instrument to ride both the decline in commodities and the softer yen.
In this chart I analyze the price action in USDJPY's weekly chart.
It appears like we have formed a balanced distribution after the lowest low in the recent selloff.
Despite this not-falling situation, rgmov continues to suggest the enviroment is overall bearish, so I'll look into fading exremes in lower timeframes, using CCI and Rgmov signals as...
