Even as Fed balance sheet keeps climbing up and U.S takes on more national debt in the current low-interest rate environment, I am not eager to jump to the premature conclusion and entertain the idea of hyperinflation. I'm not saying that it is improbable, I am just saying that it is an unlikely and low-probability event. Yes, it is a fat tail risk that...
The chart says it all. 3 trillion increase in balance sheet in 2 or 3 months... Party will go on as long as the long-term interest rate remains low... Distortion - The massive rally has been partially fueled by $l8 trillion worth of fiscal and central bank stimulus. Short-term lending rate cut to near zero and long-term interest rates dropped to near all...
1 Year Delta would be fun? And the chart is lining up nicely for it. Gold could go parabolic as the next debt note stimulus passes. They can't hold the volume down with a virus hoax forever...... its not politics, its freedom. debt based fiat central banking is unconstitutional...although arguably had its benefits for (some) and not others (by design) I'll...
TO UNDERSTAND THE STOCK MARKET'S MOVEMENT, YOU MUST UNDERSTAND WHICH FACTOR IS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL: THE DOLLAR! IF THE FED HAS SUCCEEDED IN SATISFYING THE GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE, THE STOCK MARKET WILL CREATE NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS! IF THEY HAVE FAILED, ANOTHER WAVE OF ILLIQUIDITY WILL OCCUR!
THE PRICE OF OIL IS THE MOST DIFFICULT PRICE TO MANIPULATE FOR CENTRAL BANKS! HOWEVER, THROUGH VAST AMOUNTS OF FIAT CURRENCY CREATION, THE PRICE OF OIL INCREASINGLY REFLECTS THE DEBASEMENT OF THE U.S. DOLLAR, NOT REAL DEMAND! TO OBSERVE THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN THE INFLATED U$D PRICE OF OIL AND REAL DEMAND FOR OIL, COMPARE THE PRICE OF OIL TO THE PRICE OF GOLD!
THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO THE FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...
THIS POST WILL HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE COMPETING VIEW POINTS ON THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF THE U.S. DOLLAR RELATIVE TO OTHER CURRENCIES! JEFF SNIDER'S POSITION ON THE DOLLAR: THE U.S. DOLLAR IS STRONG BECAUSE OF A SHORTAGE OF DOLLARS WORLDWIDE TO CONDUCT GLOBAL TRADE IN, DUE TO TO FED'S INABILITY TO TRULY SATISFY DEMAND FOR U$Ds, AND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS...
THE EURODOLLAR FUTURES CONTRACT REFLECTS THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE (A BENCHMARK FOR THE INTEREST RATE AT WHICH MAJOR BANKS LEND TO EACH OTHER)! WHEN THE PRICE OF THE CONTRACT INCREASES, THE L.I.B.O.R. INTEREST RATE IS DECREASING, WHEN THE PRICE FALLS, IT IS INCREASING! THE PERIOD I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS POST IS THE PERIOD OF DOLLAR ILLIQUIDITY THAT OCCURRED...
THE DXY IS ONLY MADE UP OF 6 MAJOR CURRENCIES MEASURED AGAINST THE DOLLAR: EUR (57.6% OF THE WEIGHTING), JPY (13.6%), GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%), CHF (3.6%) A MISTAKE MANY PEOPLE MAKE WHEN PREDICTING THE DOLLAR'S STRENGTH IS USING THE DXY AS A GAUGE FOR ALL CURRENCIES' PERFORMANCES AGAINST THE DOLLAR! EMERGING MARKET AND MANY OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIES ARE...
False breakdowns and false breakouts can be some of the most powerful reversal patterns in the market. We saw the start of one last Friday, when the S&P 500 closed below the key 2347 low from December 2018. Many traders had been watching that line in the sand as key support since the selloff began weeks ago. The bears managed to score some early victories...
Imagine time traveling to 2019 from 1999. You get here and there is a digital currency market. ~Sears is Bankrupt. ~United Nations Going Bankrupt. ~Debt is so big Interest Rates can never "NORMALIZE" in current structure. ~Central Banks are doing REPO but are ~SCARED TO CALL IT QE. ~Trump is saying Central Bank has lost their minds. ~Venezuela is adopting...
In the screencast I show how supposedly good news from the Federal Reserve today caused stockmarkets all over the world to leap north. Wall Street jumped some 600+ points, for the joy of many people. I don't see any reason for joy. Sorry. Forex pairs influenced by stock markets also moved seriously. The reality is that Powell used softer more measured and...
In the following content i will explain how you can forecast the market with CPI (inflation) and Financials: If we look at our figure we can say a few things, i will assume them below: 1. ABN AMRO (a dutch Financial) is highly correlated to the NIKKEI225 index. 2. Since nearly May 2016 we can see that the CPI (inflation)-chart has change 5 times. If we look at...