Fundamental Data👇
🌽Soybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 20.53%
Soybean Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 95%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
1,666,467 Metric Tons
⬇️ 516,368 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 941,965 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 549,183 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
24,241,071 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬇️ 8,056,733 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year 🤯
(these statistics do not include recent Chinese purchases totaling over 2 million metric tons)
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 46%
Neutral 🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 19%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 29%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🔴 USDA Raised ending stock estimates by 25 million bushels (245 million bushels ending stocks) and production by 3/10 of a bushel (49.9 bpa) for the 2023 crop.
🔴 USDA Raised ending stocks of Brazilian Soybeans by 2 million metric tons (all time high)
🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024)
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Soybeans are exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🔴 Mississippi river levels have receded again and likely will have an impact on shipping costs (Freight up, Basis down)
🟢 China is back in the market for Soybeans buying +2.8 million metric tons, just last week (assuming “unknown” sales are China)
🟢 Soybean meal continues to rally approaching highs not seen since March of this past year
🟢 Brazilian crop continues to suffer through drought and heat stress conditions (check our Twitter for more info)
🟢 Funds continue to add to their net long position
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Soybeans: +68,598 Contracts (Position as of 11/07)
Commentary & Technicals💹
Technically speaking, Soybeans broke through the earlier resistance we mentioned last week and settled above it, opening the door for the psychological $14.00 handle.
We note this week that the market is mainly being driven by events unfolding in Brazil (drought) and Argentina (Elections & Soybean scarcity). One of which can turn suddenly (weather) and the other is driven by both the political uncertainty in Argentina coupled with Soybean scarcity. All of which could lead to volatile outcomes in the next 2 weeks while the US is out celebrating Thanksgiving.
Watch the following levels 👇
🟢 Upside Targets: 13.98, 14.00, 14.20
🔴 Downside Targets: 13.68, 13.60, 13.36
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
🌽Soybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24)
▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 20.53%
Soybean Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱
▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░ 95%
Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎
1,666,467 Metric Tons
⬇️ 516,368 Metric Tons week vs. last week
⬇️ 941,965 Metric Tons this week vs. last week
⬇️ 549,183 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week
Export Sales🗺️🫰
24,241,071 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)
⬇️ 8,056,733 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year 🤯
(these statistics do not include recent Chinese purchases totaling over 2 million metric tons)
Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊
Bullish 🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 46%
Neutral 🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 19%
Bearish 🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 29%
Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕
🔴 USDA Raised ending stock estimates by 25 million bushels (245 million bushels ending stocks) and production by 3/10 of a bushel (49.9 bpa) for the 2023 crop.
🔴 USDA Raised ending stocks of Brazilian Soybeans by 2 million metric tons (all time high)
🔴 Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024)
🔴 Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Soybeans are exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)
🔴 Mississippi river levels have receded again and likely will have an impact on shipping costs (Freight up, Basis down)
🟢 China is back in the market for Soybeans buying +2.8 million metric tons, just last week (assuming “unknown” sales are China)
🟢 Soybean meal continues to rally approaching highs not seen since March of this past year
🟢 Brazilian crop continues to suffer through drought and heat stress conditions (check our Twitter for more info)
🟢 Funds continue to add to their net long position
Fund Net Position💰
Chicago Soybeans: +68,598 Contracts (Position as of 11/07)
Commentary & Technicals💹
Technically speaking, Soybeans broke through the earlier resistance we mentioned last week and settled above it, opening the door for the psychological $14.00 handle.
We note this week that the market is mainly being driven by events unfolding in Brazil (drought) and Argentina (Elections & Soybean scarcity). One of which can turn suddenly (weather) and the other is driven by both the political uncertainty in Argentina coupled with Soybean scarcity. All of which could lead to volatile outcomes in the next 2 weeks while the US is out celebrating Thanksgiving.
Watch the following levels 👇
🟢 Upside Targets: 13.98, 14.00, 14.20
🔴 Downside Targets: 13.68, 13.60, 13.36
Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️
This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor.
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
Comment:
Target met @ 13.98 ✅
Comment:
Target met @ 13.68 & 13.60 ✅