Further to my update on previous analysis this morning - see link.
I had originally marked my previous analysis as Neutral. I have decided to do a new publication so that I can mark it Long based on what I can see in the indicators.
Green is above Energy in 90m, 3h, 6h & almost level in the 12h. The Red RSI is above 50 in all these TF's meaning we are likely to continue to see upward pressure until the Energy exhausts and falls below 50.
Also in daily & 2d Green MA is above Energy and we can see the Energy has crossed above 50 in the daily, in the 2d the Green has turned up and looks as though the White Energy can also cross above 50.
In the 3d the Red RSI closed above 56, as a result we know that we can expect upward pressure to continue until the White Energy crosses below 50.
Red RSI in 4d closed above 50 (this is sufficient - would prefer to see a close above 56) Energy in 4d is over 90 - We should see a continuation of upward pressure until Energy in 4d exhausts and approaches 50
Trade safe
aBL
I had originally marked my previous analysis as Neutral. I have decided to do a new publication so that I can mark it Long based on what I can see in the indicators.
Green is above Energy in 90m, 3h, 6h & almost level in the 12h. The Red RSI is above 50 in all these TF's meaning we are likely to continue to see upward pressure until the Energy exhausts and falls below 50.
Also in daily & 2d Green MA is above Energy and we can see the Energy has crossed above 50 in the daily, in the 2d the Green has turned up and looks as though the White Energy can also cross above 50.
In the 3d the Red RSI closed above 56, as a result we know that we can expect upward pressure to continue until the White Energy crosses below 50.
Red RSI in 4d closed above 50 (this is sufficient - would prefer to see a close above 56) Energy in 4d is over 90 - We should see a continuation of upward pressure until Energy in 4d exhausts and approaches 50
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
Near term TF's
Comment:
Previous analysis
Comment:
In the daily the Red RSI & Blue LSMA crossed above 50 and remain above 50. This indicates that we can expect the price action to trade between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands as the White Energy rises above 50. When the Blue LSMA crossed above 50 it indicated that the Bollinger Bands could start to expand. We want to see the Blue LSMA and the Red RSI rise higher, we should then see the Bollinger Bands expanding more and the price action rising within the Aqua/Orange upper BBs.
Comment:
The Blue LSMA is turning up in the daily. The Bollinger Bands may as a result expand more steeply, if the Red RSI turns up we could see the price action rise to sit between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs and potentially even wick up to the Red upper BB while they expand. We have 8 hours left of the current candle. We could see the next daily candle hit between $3.20-$3.50 if the Red RSI turns up enough.
Comment:
We are seeing downward pressure in our scalping group of timeframes.
When the Red RSI and Blue LSMA crossed below 50 together in the 6 minute that was a premium sell signal in that TF. The same has happened in the 12 minute TF. There is a good chance for the price action to go between the White/Aqua lower BBs in that TF.
Because the Red RSI dropped below 50 a race has been triggered between the Energy in the 12 minute and the Red RSI in the 23 minute. If the Red RSI in the 23 minute crosses below 50 before the Energy in the 12 minute closes above 50, we will see a continuation of downward pressure. We will then need to look at a race between Energy in the 23 & Red RSI in the 45 minute.
This does not change what we see in the higher TF's
When the Red RSI and Blue LSMA crossed below 50 together in the 6 minute that was a premium sell signal in that TF. The same has happened in the 12 minute TF. There is a good chance for the price action to go between the White/Aqua lower BBs in that TF.
Because the Red RSI dropped below 50 a race has been triggered between the Energy in the 12 minute and the Red RSI in the 23 minute. If the Red RSI in the 23 minute crosses below 50 before the Energy in the 12 minute closes above 50, we will see a continuation of downward pressure. We will then need to look at a race between Energy in the 23 & Red RSI in the 45 minute.
This does not change what we see in the higher TF's
Comment:
I just wanted to demonstrate in real time in low timeframes how the outcome of the race can demonstrate a reversal of pressure.
You can see in the following picture that the Energy in the 12 minute won the race against the Red RSI in the 23 minute.
You can see in the following picture that the Energy in the 12 minute won the race against the Red RSI in the 23 minute.
Comment:
I did not yet mention that, particularly when the race is close, you want to confirm the outcome in 3 lower timeframes than the 12 minute. We would want to see the Green higher than the Energy in all these TFs to confirm. This is however just an example and we are in scalping timeframes.
Comment:
We are now in a race between the Energy in 23 minute & Red RSI in 45 minute, Red RSI looks like it will win and downward pressure for now will continue
Comment:
Well I was wrong - The Energy did win the Race, however we need confirmation before we can assume resumption of upward pressure. We get this by looking at the 3 lower TFs - each one halved so we look at 12 minute, 6 minute & 3 minute. Based on the fact that the Energy is higher than the Green we have to conclude that we are not yet ready for upward pressure to resume
Comment:
This is confirmed by what we can see in the 23 with the Green MA pointing back down.
Comment:
We are currently in race between the Energy in the 3h & the Red RSI in the 6h.
We need to see the Energy in the 3h close above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6h crosses below 50 in order to see a chance for resumption of sustained upward pressure.
In the meantime, unless the Red RSI turns up we can see the price action fall between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs
We need to see the Energy in the 3h close above 50 before the Red RSI in the 6h crosses below 50 in order to see a chance for resumption of sustained upward pressure.
In the meantime, unless the Red RSI turns up we can see the price action fall between the Aqua/Orange lower BBs
Comment:
In the near term timeframes the Green MA is above the energy in all but the 4d which is close, the Green looks like it will come out to the side allowing the Energy to drop below. While the Green remains above the Energy and the Red RSI is above 50 we should continue to see price action move between the Aqua/Orange BBs. Based on the movement of the Blue LSMA rising above 50 we are seeing the BBs expand and the price action will rise within the Orange/Aqua.
Trade safe
aBL
Trade safe
aBL
