This is a noob in search of feedback to his ideas. Please do not take this as financial advice, but rather as laughing material on a Saturday night.
So, in my last post here (Last expectation: XTZ under 1.92) I proclaimed that the price was going to bounce up from 2.41 up to 3.45-3.7, just to immediately then drop under 1.92 (all values USD). Nevertheless, I was deeply mistaken, as the price continued up to an incredible 4.14.
Due to me having real life problems, I stayed out of the market during this period, preferring to just observe the price action. Yet, a month later, I decided to check in with the professionals (you) and see if I read the graphs correctly.
The anatomy of the last dump makes me believe the following:
My expectations:
Please note I am not planning to invest currently, because the market is too shenanigansy for my liking.
*Pertaining to the bear market idea, I think/feel/hope this is NOT the end of the 2020-2021 bull run, but just a break, and in the next month(s?) we'll see price increases again. I just don't know when this rocket will refill and take us again to the moon.
Also, I am fully aware that XTZ and the rest of the market is more or less tied to BTC (or rather ETH, because Tezos is a smart contracts platform). I am unable to discuss macroeconomic indicators, but the recent increases in BTC.D lead me to believe we're in for a little bit of bear momentum, needing to get BTC down and the alts to the ground, so that later BTC could re-launch again and the alts will follow.
Thank you for your attention, please leave your thoughts in the comments (however positive or negative they might be).
So, in my last post here (Last expectation: XTZ under 1.92) I proclaimed that the price was going to bounce up from 2.41 up to 3.45-3.7, just to immediately then drop under 1.92 (all values USD). Nevertheless, I was deeply mistaken, as the price continued up to an incredible 4.14.
Due to me having real life problems, I stayed out of the market during this period, preferring to just observe the price action. Yet, a month later, I decided to check in with the professionals (you) and see if I read the graphs correctly.
- 2.9-3USD was still a major resistance/support, on May 30th, and Jun 30th.
- 4.05USD would have been a great resistance to bet against, as the 0.382/0.618 fib after the dump on May 23rd.
- 2.42USD was a great support both for the May 23rd dump, and after the Jun 22nd one (on Jun 22nd, the drop went to 2.16, also an extended fib obtained from drawing between 2.9 and 4.14).
The anatomy of the last dump makes me believe the following:
- After a dump, a recovery of around 2-3 bands of fib is to be expected.
- After the recovery of n bands, another dump of n-1 bands is to be expected.
- After the second dump, the price slowly rises upper than the first recovery.
My expectations:
Please note I am not planning to invest currently, because the market is too shenanigansy for my liking.
- Price action is not as volatile as it was two months ago. The market is quite boring.
- Consolidation between 2.9 and 2.5 is almost sure to be expected, and I think we have more downward pressure to see.
- IF XTZ goes back up to 3.38 USD (0.618 fib - which to me, psychologically, seems impossible), I'd brace for impact or even short it 100x leveraged (what a luck my platform doesn't provide shorting possibilities of any kind).
- 2.15 seems a reasonable price, I think we'll get back to it AND under it, maybe, who knows, even to the proclaimed 1.92 (so I'll be right in the end). But with the graph moving slower than the (in)famous T (AT&T), I am unable to say when we'll get there (maybe it will be an inverse peak this night, maybe a day next week, maybe that will be the bear market for the next 4 years*).
*Pertaining to the bear market idea, I think/feel/hope this is NOT the end of the 2020-2021 bull run, but just a break, and in the next month(s?) we'll see price increases again. I just don't know when this rocket will refill and take us again to the moon.
Also, I am fully aware that XTZ and the rest of the market is more or less tied to BTC (or rather ETH, because Tezos is a smart contracts platform). I am unable to discuss macroeconomic indicators, but the recent increases in BTC.D lead me to believe we're in for a little bit of bear momentum, needing to get BTC down and the alts to the ground, so that later BTC could re-launch again and the alts will follow.
Thank you for your attention, please leave your thoughts in the comments (however positive or negative they might be).
