Alright Zerp, let's go.
THE ANALYSIS
1). Finally closed the week above the 20 EMA for the firs time since the $1.96 local top, which I consider as our breakout and back test of the 3-year support/resistance line, as well as the downward channel from last cycle top.
2). Weekly RSI (52.67) is almost identical to the 2017 breakout level which was 52.19.
3). We have had no fewer than 10 touches on the primary upward channel, confirming its validity. While (with significant fundamental disruption) it is possible to test this channel again, it is likely we will not fall out of this channel.
4). The arcs support the upward movements towards channel tops. Do not take any of these signals as a guarantee of timeline. Again, precluding significant fundamental disruption, the long-term trajectory is upward with two targets - the orange line, or blue line upper limit of the primary channel.
5). We do have a bearish cross on the MACD, so in order to reverse that, we will probably trend sideways a bit more until we touch the arc, but once we do, it up, up and away.
FOR THE MARKET CAP CRY BABIES (who likely won't take the time to fully read and comprehend the below)
Oh, but the market cap would have to be this billion or that trillion for XRP or BTC to be this price. Waaa. Waaa. Waaa. A lot of people misunderstand the usage of market cap, but I'll break it down in three different ways (hopefully you understand at least one of them):
1. For XRP to be worth $100, market cap would be 4.6 trillion. So, what? In its simplest form, market cap is only a reflection of what the market THINKS a company is worth - it is NOT a representation of what the market has actually invested in or PAID FOR company. In other words, PRICE is not the same as VALUE. In fact, records show that actual spending is often times around 10% of what the market cap is. Simply put, the market can think XRP is worth 4.6 trillion (based on price) but actual dollar input could be closer to 460 billion (what they actually paid). So, in essence, even if it's worth 4.6 trillion, it didn't actually take 4.6 trillion to get it to that price.
2. The KISS analysis: I own XRP, BTC, etc. You may own XRP, BTC, etc. Say I paid 1$ for 100 XRP - I have $100 worth of XRP. Price goes up to $40, which means I now have $4,000 VALUE of XRP. Did what I paid change? Obviously not. So. If I theoretically owned the entire supply of XRP, my market cap is now $4,000, but I still only paid $100 for all of it. You see, I own XRP, you may own XRP, others own XRP, but if the price goes up or down, it doesn't change our initial dollars paid. So yes, the market can be worth much much more than what is actually put into it - in other words - it CAN be worth 5 trillion, 10 trillion, 100 trillion without having to have 5, 10 or 100 trillion put into it.
3. A practical example: All the physical USD cash circulating in the world today amount to about 36 trillion, while the amount of investments in the world is 1.2 quadrillion. Mathematically speaking, if all the world's money was in investments (it's not), then 1.2 quadrillion worth of investments only needed 3% of its VALUE in actual costs to give it that value. Extrapolating that 3% rule to XRP, then theoretically, for an XRP market cap of 4.6 trillion, maybe it only takes 138 billion in actual dollars to get it there. Extrapolating that 3% rule to BTC, then theoretically, for BTC price to be $1 million, market cap would be 19 trillion, maybe it only takes 570 billion in actual dollars to get it there. Do you think there is 135 billion or even 570 billion in the crypto market today? Possibly, but you can bet your granny's false teeth that with all these institutions rolling in, if it already isn't there, it sure is coming in!
CONCLUSION
I've almost always kept my analyses private for myself, but I think I'll deviate just once. Now, I'm not a Permabull, I'm not on Hopium, I don't support outrageous price speculations, but I do believe in technicals, and the chart's inevitably say what they will do. Will it happen tomorrow? Very likely not, but in the long term - very probably so. Market cap is a simplified metric. Educate yourself a bit more before parroting the sounds of misinformed Plebeians.
Let's Go Zerp!
THE ANALYSIS
1). Finally closed the week above the 20 EMA for the firs time since the $1.96 local top, which I consider as our breakout and back test of the 3-year support/resistance line, as well as the downward channel from last cycle top.
2). Weekly RSI (52.67) is almost identical to the 2017 breakout level which was 52.19.
3). We have had no fewer than 10 touches on the primary upward channel, confirming its validity. While (with significant fundamental disruption) it is possible to test this channel again, it is likely we will not fall out of this channel.
4). The arcs support the upward movements towards channel tops. Do not take any of these signals as a guarantee of timeline. Again, precluding significant fundamental disruption, the long-term trajectory is upward with two targets - the orange line, or blue line upper limit of the primary channel.
5). We do have a bearish cross on the MACD, so in order to reverse that, we will probably trend sideways a bit more until we touch the arc, but once we do, it up, up and away.
FOR THE MARKET CAP CRY BABIES (who likely won't take the time to fully read and comprehend the below)
Oh, but the market cap would have to be this billion or that trillion for XRP or BTC to be this price. Waaa. Waaa. Waaa. A lot of people misunderstand the usage of market cap, but I'll break it down in three different ways (hopefully you understand at least one of them):
1. For XRP to be worth $100, market cap would be 4.6 trillion. So, what? In its simplest form, market cap is only a reflection of what the market THINKS a company is worth - it is NOT a representation of what the market has actually invested in or PAID FOR company. In other words, PRICE is not the same as VALUE. In fact, records show that actual spending is often times around 10% of what the market cap is. Simply put, the market can think XRP is worth 4.6 trillion (based on price) but actual dollar input could be closer to 460 billion (what they actually paid). So, in essence, even if it's worth 4.6 trillion, it didn't actually take 4.6 trillion to get it to that price.
2. The KISS analysis: I own XRP, BTC, etc. You may own XRP, BTC, etc. Say I paid 1$ for 100 XRP - I have $100 worth of XRP. Price goes up to $40, which means I now have $4,000 VALUE of XRP. Did what I paid change? Obviously not. So. If I theoretically owned the entire supply of XRP, my market cap is now $4,000, but I still only paid $100 for all of it. You see, I own XRP, you may own XRP, others own XRP, but if the price goes up or down, it doesn't change our initial dollars paid. So yes, the market can be worth much much more than what is actually put into it - in other words - it CAN be worth 5 trillion, 10 trillion, 100 trillion without having to have 5, 10 or 100 trillion put into it.
3. A practical example: All the physical USD cash circulating in the world today amount to about 36 trillion, while the amount of investments in the world is 1.2 quadrillion. Mathematically speaking, if all the world's money was in investments (it's not), then 1.2 quadrillion worth of investments only needed 3% of its VALUE in actual costs to give it that value. Extrapolating that 3% rule to XRP, then theoretically, for an XRP market cap of 4.6 trillion, maybe it only takes 138 billion in actual dollars to get it there. Extrapolating that 3% rule to BTC, then theoretically, for BTC price to be $1 million, market cap would be 19 trillion, maybe it only takes 570 billion in actual dollars to get it there. Do you think there is 135 billion or even 570 billion in the crypto market today? Possibly, but you can bet your granny's false teeth that with all these institutions rolling in, if it already isn't there, it sure is coming in!
CONCLUSION
I've almost always kept my analyses private for myself, but I think I'll deviate just once. Now, I'm not a Permabull, I'm not on Hopium, I don't support outrageous price speculations, but I do believe in technicals, and the chart's inevitably say what they will do. Will it happen tomorrow? Very likely not, but in the long term - very probably so. Market cap is a simplified metric. Educate yourself a bit more before parroting the sounds of misinformed Plebeians.
Let's Go Zerp!