I'm sharing this as a follow up to a call I made on Reddit as we were running on $0.72 where I called the $0.72 peak and projected a retrace back to $0.55. As we're now nearing the range I called, I've decided to do a bit more thorough price analysis to delve into probability of different short term bottoms as well as projecting the most likely EoY/Q1 price movements that are to come.
1. The Yellow Trend Line: in the chart depicts if the daily RSI finds strength at 30, if this plays out, then we're going to see the price bottom just above $0.56. So if you don't want to miss out on the buying opportunity from this dip, there's a +90% chance you'll be able to fill a buy order at $0.565 in the coming days.
2. The Orange Trend Line: This is the range I've been calling us to pull back to since we ran on $0.72 over two weeks ago and I'm still sold on this being our local bottom for a few reasons. Primary among them; of the 17 times XRP's daily RSI has broken above 80 and then retraced below the 50, only 6 times has the RSI regained strength off the 30. 11 times it's capitulated below the 30. Which suggests a 65% chance you can fill a buy order at $0.542.
3. The Red Line: If XRP breaks below $0.542, it's last line of support before full capitulation is $0.52. A short term pull back to this range (without a strong bounce off one of the prior before hand) is extremely unlikely. Of the 17 times we've seen this RSI pattern, only 3 times has it pulled back as severely as would be required to see the price capitulate to $0.52. So there's only an 18% chance of filling your buy order at $0.52.
December/January Analysis: These projections are based upon the downward trend continuing. These do not account for what could happen after we rally from one of the above these levels. If we see the price follow the Red Line the subsequent rally will be a dead cat bounce before we see further pain (and even more downside) in the months to come. Even if we bounce off $0.54 it doesn't guarantee we will have further upside (breaking above $0.72) the most likely outcome will be the price being range bound between $0.72 & $0.54 through the end of the year. Something else to keep in mind is that 6 of XRP's 9 Decembers have been bloodbaths and 6 of it's 10 Januarys have been bloody. Resulting in in 8/9 Dec-Jan for XRP being some of the most painful periods in XRP's history. The only exception to this was Dec/Jan 2017/18 when XRP reached it's ATH. We can exempt this from our data set as the market conditions during that time were almost the exact opposite of what we're witnessing today (ie the whole market was at peak euphoria going into the end of 2017).
Optimistic Outlook: In the best case scenario, XRP bounces off $0.56 in short term, ranges between $0.56 & $0.72 through December, capitulates to $0.54 in January, then we see the price break above $0.72 by end of January/early February.
Neutral Outlook: XRP bounces off $0.54 in short term, ranges between $0.54 & $0.70 through December, capitulates to $0.52 in January, ranges between $0.52 & $0.66 through all of Q1 2024.
Pessimistic Outlook: XRP bounces off $0.52 in short term, has dead cat bounce into mid December, capitulates at end of year/January all the way to $0.44, with no sign of life returning until late Q2 2024.
1. The Yellow Trend Line: in the chart depicts if the daily RSI finds strength at 30, if this plays out, then we're going to see the price bottom just above $0.56. So if you don't want to miss out on the buying opportunity from this dip, there's a +90% chance you'll be able to fill a buy order at $0.565 in the coming days.
2. The Orange Trend Line: This is the range I've been calling us to pull back to since we ran on $0.72 over two weeks ago and I'm still sold on this being our local bottom for a few reasons. Primary among them; of the 17 times XRP's daily RSI has broken above 80 and then retraced below the 50, only 6 times has the RSI regained strength off the 30. 11 times it's capitulated below the 30. Which suggests a 65% chance you can fill a buy order at $0.542.
3. The Red Line: If XRP breaks below $0.542, it's last line of support before full capitulation is $0.52. A short term pull back to this range (without a strong bounce off one of the prior before hand) is extremely unlikely. Of the 17 times we've seen this RSI pattern, only 3 times has it pulled back as severely as would be required to see the price capitulate to $0.52. So there's only an 18% chance of filling your buy order at $0.52.
December/January Analysis: These projections are based upon the downward trend continuing. These do not account for what could happen after we rally from one of the above these levels. If we see the price follow the Red Line the subsequent rally will be a dead cat bounce before we see further pain (and even more downside) in the months to come. Even if we bounce off $0.54 it doesn't guarantee we will have further upside (breaking above $0.72) the most likely outcome will be the price being range bound between $0.72 & $0.54 through the end of the year. Something else to keep in mind is that 6 of XRP's 9 Decembers have been bloodbaths and 6 of it's 10 Januarys have been bloody. Resulting in in 8/9 Dec-Jan for XRP being some of the most painful periods in XRP's history. The only exception to this was Dec/Jan 2017/18 when XRP reached it's ATH. We can exempt this from our data set as the market conditions during that time were almost the exact opposite of what we're witnessing today (ie the whole market was at peak euphoria going into the end of 2017).
Optimistic Outlook: In the best case scenario, XRP bounces off $0.56 in short term, ranges between $0.56 & $0.72 through December, capitulates to $0.54 in January, then we see the price break above $0.72 by end of January/early February.
Neutral Outlook: XRP bounces off $0.54 in short term, ranges between $0.54 & $0.70 through December, capitulates to $0.52 in January, ranges between $0.52 & $0.66 through all of Q1 2024.
Pessimistic Outlook: XRP bounces off $0.52 in short term, has dead cat bounce into mid December, capitulates at end of year/January all the way to $0.44, with no sign of life returning until late Q2 2024.
Trade active:
The BTC ETF announcement couldn't have come at a better time for helping lock in the optimistic price path I projected all the way back in November.
It's looking like our patience through the bear market is soon to be rewarded.
It's looking like our patience through the bear market is soon to be rewarded.