XLF monthly new bull market or fake out?

XLF (banks) monthly was in a huge symmetrical triangle which start to form at COVID lows and January did break out which is bullish while the month finished slightly above last month's high which is also bullish as we got higher highs and higher lows or trends.

However, volume is not the best and doesn't confirm too much this price action much as on break out of this kind of pattern volume should be much bigger or this could be just a fakeout or dead hook which could cause a major drop in whole banks sector next several months.

Therefore price needs to move on, and close above the January high. RSI is neutral and still has a lot of places to move up. MACD histogram is ticking smaller and smaller while lines are trying to cross and to support up move. From the bearish point of view, if XLF drops below the trend line this will just be a Bear pullback and will get a big and nasty sell signal.

Consistent trades assess there is more possibility to drop from here due to the fact that reports from banks weren't the best at all plus the real estate market start to fall which could also be negative for banks. After this Hype about the FED pivot, interest hike and etc, fundaments will arrive again and banks will likely drop.