XLE Bull Put spread at intraday pullback after-1 sig test
Symbol XLE
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 78
Price to Open 0.30
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 5.67
Return on Risk 17.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.38%
Max Annual ROI % 140.0%
Longer term is bullish on XLE. Has engaged -1 sig Buying Oct 5 which would have been the best time and place to sell puts.
Engaged again 10/26 through 10/30 and pushed away.
And it pushed up to the VWAP of the bullish model.
I would strictly say that the -1 sig has been engaged 6 days already, but the fact that it pushed up to the VWAP and sold off tells me that the buying algo is still in play.
Sold Puts at the 80 strike below -2 sig on the bullish model.
Overall, I do think XLE goes higher into the Bearish +1 sig near 89 and gives time for the 80 puts 46 DTE to die.
Decent entry at .30 but the high trade of the day was .34.
This was just above the 15 min chart -1 sig low which held the session beautifully.
I don't expect that I could've gotten .34, but perhaps .32 was possible AT the 15min chart -1 sig low.
If XLE pushes in the next few days down past 84 I will roll further out, and maybe 1 or 2 down.
If XLE eats time and rallies up to 89 I will do nothing.
If XLE gets a break above 89 and attacks 89.25 I will consider selling Calls at the 94 strike.
SPY is steady today and sustaining it's hard Bull rally from last week, so XLE is not in sync with it.
Open Date 11/6/2023
Bear Call or Bull Put Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 78
Price to Open 0.30
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 5.67
Return on Risk 17.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.38%
Max Annual ROI % 140.0%
Longer term is bullish on XLE. Has engaged -1 sig Buying Oct 5 which would have been the best time and place to sell puts.
Engaged again 10/26 through 10/30 and pushed away.
And it pushed up to the VWAP of the bullish model.
I would strictly say that the -1 sig has been engaged 6 days already, but the fact that it pushed up to the VWAP and sold off tells me that the buying algo is still in play.
Sold Puts at the 80 strike below -2 sig on the bullish model.
Overall, I do think XLE goes higher into the Bearish +1 sig near 89 and gives time for the 80 puts 46 DTE to die.
Decent entry at .30 but the high trade of the day was .34.
This was just above the 15 min chart -1 sig low which held the session beautifully.
I don't expect that I could've gotten .34, but perhaps .32 was possible AT the 15min chart -1 sig low.
If XLE pushes in the next few days down past 84 I will roll further out, and maybe 1 or 2 down.
If XLE eats time and rallies up to 89 I will do nothing.
If XLE gets a break above 89 and attacks 89.25 I will consider selling Calls at the 94 strike.
SPY is steady today and sustaining it's hard Bull rally from last week, so XLE is not in sync with it.
Comment:
This one ran out all of my runway all the way past the rollout date.
And then stopped on a Weekly B/S close and turned around.
Those weekly levels are powerful for this type of trading.
I find myself my acting at those levels and then selling one level behind it.
I think it's possible to not need any other form of analysis or strike selection strategy.
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Symbol XLE
Open Date 11/6/2023
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 78
Price to Open 0.30
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 5.67
Return on Risk 17.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.38%
Max Annual ROI % 140.0%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date 12/13/2023
Closing Price 0.00
Closed Margin ROI % 17.65%
Closed Annual ROI % 140.03%
And then stopped on a Weekly B/S close and turned around.
Those weekly levels are powerful for this type of trading.
I find myself my acting at those levels and then selling one level behind it.
I think it's possible to not need any other form of analysis or strike selection strategy.
#####
Symbol XLE
Open Date 11/6/2023
Put or Call Put
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 80
Long Strike 78
Price to Open 0.30
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 5.67
Return on Risk 17.6%
Opening DTE 46
1 Day ROI% 0.38%
Max Annual ROI % 140.0%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date 12/13/2023
Closing Price 0.00
Closed Margin ROI % 17.65%
Closed Annual ROI % 140.03%
Comment:
The weekly B/S was at 18.18 and came from the 6/26/2023 candle
That would've been a GREAT opportunity to buy it back and then resell it Down and out but I missed it.
Still holding this one. It's the only one that I haven't rolled out yet. Pre market today looks like a rally off the back of USO rally yesterday. We'll see what the 5 min looks like around +1 sig on the aggregate decline from 84. Currently around 83. If it looks like a stall or the rally is really weak, then I'll buy it back and look for the push down past 81 to resell Down and out.