US Home Builders to hold 200-day moving average.
XHB may come down to the 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) and wick below but I think the next 8W candle will be green.
I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. If the interest rates, go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and reduce profits which will lower US tax receipts. Based on that, the FED will need to hold interest rates or not raise them much more and this will be supportive in the short run for the market to go higher in the end of the year. I expect the market is going to find a top and then as unemployment rises, we are going to see short term interest rates come down and for the market to have a capitulation event in 2024. If that is likely, then those that want to support the incumbent president will want that crash to happen early enough that there can be an end of year rally for 2024 ahead of the presidential election. There needs to be headlines saying the recession is over.
I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. If the interest rates, go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and reduce profits which will lower US tax receipts. Based on that, the FED will need to hold interest rates or not raise them much more and this will be supportive in the short run for the market to go higher in the end of the year. I expect the market is going to find a top and then as unemployment rises, we are going to see short term interest rates come down and for the market to have a capitulation event in 2024. If that is likely, then those that want to support the incumbent president will want that crash to happen early enough that there can be an end of year rally for 2024 ahead of the presidential election. There needs to be headlines saying the recession is over.
Absorbing info with every cycle