BTCUSD
Bullish on the intermediate time frame - 18-24 days
* Inverse HS forming its right shoulder after a false premature breakout from its neckline - this is shown best on the HTF's
* Ascending triangle forming at the swing low of the RS - this is shown best on the LTF's such as H2
* Bullish Divergence on the 12H TF's from the recent swing low that went o/u 6K on June 28
* Profit target is highlighted in the box $7,7XX
* Risk is $5,905
Major trend is still bearish and I believe the trend will resume in its all to familiar downtrend once PT is hit.
Trade closed manually:
+15.6% on (2) accounts 5x margin.
I am now flat - not weak hands.
* My original timeline was a 2+ week hold but when prices rally as aggressively as it did in the last 72 hours, you cannot reasonably expect your profit target to remain true without a significant risk of giving back profits.
* There were no significant pullbacks from 62xx to 75xx - each leg up felt organic but was definitely backed by amateur longs FOMO'ing in. These are the same traders who will stop out or panic sell when the experienced traders begin distributing their position speeding up the pullback.
* R/R evolves throughout the trade ... due to the top wick nature of the previous (2) 4H candles, the risk is asymmetrically greater than the reward.
* You can either cut your time in a trade (opportunity cost) or your potential profits. Rarely does the market allow you to realize both favorably - take whichever it gives (in this case, shortened time) and re-enter at 71xx.
I am now flat - not weak hands.
* My original timeline was a 2+ week hold but when prices rally as aggressively as it did in the last 72 hours, you cannot reasonably expect your profit target to remain true without a significant risk of giving back profits.
* There were no significant pullbacks from 62xx to 75xx - each leg up felt organic but was definitely backed by amateur longs FOMO'ing in. These are the same traders who will stop out or panic sell when the experienced traders begin distributing their position speeding up the pullback.
* R/R evolves throughout the trade ... due to the top wick nature of the previous (2) 4H candles, the risk is asymmetrically greater than the reward.
* You can either cut your time in a trade (opportunity cost) or your potential profits. Rarely does the market allow you to realize both favorably - take whichever it gives (in this case, shortened time) and re-enter at 71xx.
So that certainly means I care about what BTC does. Right now, I have no reason to suspect a D1 won't close above 68xx moving into the middle of this week. I drew my iHS neckline at an angle but I am also aware that a horizontal line across 68xx is perfectly valid. In fact, that is probably the more legitimate R zone given the obviousness of it to other traders.
I've been taking base hits for the later half of Q1 and all of Q2. I have not paid myself yet on the way up for the following reasons: 1) PA seems organic as in, there seems to be a real demand for the exhausting supply currently, 2) momentum continues to swing higher on all relevant TF's, 3) the D and W is in a great technical position to cycle upwards before the bear trend resumes (larger descending triangle pattern) and 4) the supply reaction at 68xx was dull ... I don't expect it to break on the first or second 4H attempts because it needs to cool off ... in addition, multiple touches on s/r does NOT make it stronger ... it makes it more legitimate but weaker.
If you understand the last point, great. If you don't, you will in due time.