The USDOLLAR is continuing its road to zero and ignorant bitcoin "investors" and "experts" have no clue what the real reason for their magic beans going up is.
Bitcoin is behaving pretty predictably. In the details can't tell if the price stays around 20k for long, or keeps going up, going to depend on how fast the USD falls. Depends how excited the crypto community gets.
But for sure BTC is "following" the general global monetary & geopolitic situation.
Bitcoin permabulls are starting to get thrilled. Excited bagholders looking to FOMO in (after exiting a few months ago) are not able to log in and buy (lol)!
The CME also just announced they would launch Ethereum futures.
Out of all the instruments available, smart money can look for the best trade, best pullback best RR:
Euro, Krona, Indonesian bonds, or even Bitcoin, whatever it may be.
🤔
China currency is likely just going to strengthen, the west will continue to collapse, and in 3 years the Vietnamese middle class will come spend their strong currencies on holiday in the US, UK, France & Germany.
If BTC competes with China east asian regional currency (that competes with the USD) they might have to ban BTC.
Crypto CFDS are gone in Europe, if I want to bet on BTC I can go through Kraken, I think I'll just pass.
Might as well just short USDCNY & USDSEK that keep winning, there is literally no difference with buying BTC, it is the same trade.
Long term investments for me - this is a side activity - will be Asian fixed income tools as well as maybe a few UK, Australia, Scandinavian, and Asian stocks, certainly not some coinflip crypto lottery ticket; and I will not take much risk personally, my goal is very slow and steady, safe bonds mostly, even with very small returns, just want certainty and as little risk as possible.
Crypto is random and it has a high risk of getting banned.
The west and the US can continue to collapse for a while so everything including Bitcoin can continue to go up.
With asians making their own money and China "conquering" Hong Kong (for its financial center what else?), they will invest their surplus in their own economies rather than continue to finance the US growth & comfort social programs.
France is even worse, social programs ALONE are a bigger % of GDP than the ENTIRE China public spending in % of GDP.
I think they plan on robbing people savings directly, to survive a bit longer. Better flee to the UK or anywhere else before this happens.
The UK might survive. They have demographic issues though, and have a hard time securing their borders, and already have 1000 tribes fighting each other, and they still have not started taking pro-natality measures (will they ever?).
For delusional BTC "true believers" that think BTC is going up on its own:
Asian money just going to keep on keeping
Recently I had a very good buy on Bitcoin, with Europe guaranteeing losses, comfy.
But it all got banned, too many noobs getting their faces ripped off.
I do not think it is worth the trouble to go out of our way to get some BTC. I won't. Just cannot be bothered.
In PPS:
- China 16% of world GDP
- USA 16% of world GDP
- EU (-UK) 16% of world GDP
Apart from banning crypto CFD I don't see what the EU has in mind? Maybe they ban Bitcoin because it transmits covid? (according to them)
I'd keep my eyes on the USA currency and on what China will do.
I see no reason for the price of Bitcoin not to keep going up.
Bitcoin is behaving pretty predictably. In the details can't tell if the price stays around 20k for long, or keeps going up, going to depend on how fast the USD falls. Depends how excited the crypto community gets.
But for sure BTC is "following" the general global monetary & geopolitic situation.
Bitcoin permabulls are starting to get thrilled. Excited bagholders looking to FOMO in (after exiting a few months ago) are not able to log in and buy (lol)!
The CME also just announced they would launch Ethereum futures.
Out of all the instruments available, smart money can look for the best trade, best pullback best RR:
Euro, Krona, Indonesian bonds, or even Bitcoin, whatever it may be.
🤔
China currency is likely just going to strengthen, the west will continue to collapse, and in 3 years the Vietnamese middle class will come spend their strong currencies on holiday in the US, UK, France & Germany.
If BTC competes with China east asian regional currency (that competes with the USD) they might have to ban BTC.
Crypto CFDS are gone in Europe, if I want to bet on BTC I can go through Kraken, I think I'll just pass.
Might as well just short USDCNY & USDSEK that keep winning, there is literally no difference with buying BTC, it is the same trade.
Long term investments for me - this is a side activity - will be Asian fixed income tools as well as maybe a few UK, Australia, Scandinavian, and Asian stocks, certainly not some coinflip crypto lottery ticket; and I will not take much risk personally, my goal is very slow and steady, safe bonds mostly, even with very small returns, just want certainty and as little risk as possible.
Crypto is random and it has a high risk of getting banned.
The west and the US can continue to collapse for a while so everything including Bitcoin can continue to go up.
With asians making their own money and China "conquering" Hong Kong (for its financial center what else?), they will invest their surplus in their own economies rather than continue to finance the US growth & comfort social programs.
France is even worse, social programs ALONE are a bigger % of GDP than the ENTIRE China public spending in % of GDP.
I think they plan on robbing people savings directly, to survive a bit longer. Better flee to the UK or anywhere else before this happens.
The UK might survive. They have demographic issues though, and have a hard time securing their borders, and already have 1000 tribes fighting each other, and they still have not started taking pro-natality measures (will they ever?).
For delusional BTC "true believers" that think BTC is going up on its own:
Asian money just going to keep on keeping
Recently I had a very good buy on Bitcoin, with Europe guaranteeing losses, comfy.
But it all got banned, too many noobs getting their faces ripped off.
I do not think it is worth the trouble to go out of our way to get some BTC. I won't. Just cannot be bothered.
In PPS:
- China 16% of world GDP
- USA 16% of world GDP
- EU (-UK) 16% of world GDP
Apart from banning crypto CFD I don't see what the EU has in mind? Maybe they ban Bitcoin because it transmits covid? (according to them)
I'd keep my eyes on the USA currency and on what China will do.
I see no reason for the price of Bitcoin not to keep going up.
Comment:
A shame that CFDs got banned
My guess is the price continues vertically until a major pullback in a couple of days.
We are now in euphoria.
Note the ressemblance.
My guess is the price continues vertically until a major pullback in a couple of days.
We are now in euphoria.
Note the ressemblance.
Comment:
Clearly in euphoria imo. A bit early to tell so we will see. With Brexit, brokers might offer btc cfds on their eu parts (regulated in cyprus) I did not find clear answers and I didn't call them. The problem is market is closed on the week end. Euphoria goes so fast one can trade it "intra week". When the price goes so strongly in 1 direction it's quite easy money compared to usual.
BTC is so popular with retail, why can't FX brokers just offer it in a simple way and open the week end?
They offered BTC no problem when it was slow and not worth it...
I can't send money to kraken or bitmex I need every last cent to scale in fx.
I could send the amount I want to risk to Bitmex but it's a headache... How do I calculate taxes? Compare how many euros I put in and how much I got out? How if I keep some BTC? And what about transaction costs? With FX brokers none of this.
BTC is so popular with retail, why can't FX brokers just offer it in a simple way and open the week end?
They offered BTC no problem when it was slow and not worth it...
I can't send money to kraken or bitmex I need every last cent to scale in fx.
I could send the amount I want to risk to Bitmex but it's a headache... How do I calculate taxes? Compare how many euros I put in and how much I got out? How if I keep some BTC? And what about transaction costs? With FX brokers none of this.
Let's turn hundreds of millions of millenials and gen Z into liberals not because they understand the issues and the values of it but because price go up excites their reptilian brains. Bitcoin is not the worse means to an end. I mean they're just mindless zombies anyway.
FAANG is about 6 trillion, in France we call them GAFA because no one cares about netflix, and GAFA is still capitalized at nearly 6 trillion.
People in large numbers have stopped believing in the media, banks want to increase their control and keep destroying even more the world, in France it is not taboo to talk of "hey let's rob our population savings to pay the debt" (France is not allowed to default unless they FREXIT and the liberal-bourgeoisie is ultra mega pro EU for only 1 reason: it is what got hammered into their heads at school, and here politicians are nerds that went to administration schools and have the predictive abilities of a potato, they are absolutely unable to think for themselves).
France has plenty of old people that would like to keep their money.
The savings of frenchies is estimated to be at 5 trillion euros, France debt is ye something around that number, and the country GDP is 2.8 Trillion, with government spending ~60% of GDP (minus the public spending of course).
In France, social benefits (les "prestations" gosh what a name), feeds into useless freeloaders a percentage of GDP - remember, the social benefits part alone - bigger than China ENTIRE public spending! And it's not good for the freeloaders either because no one got fit going into the gym watching someone else lift weights.
The government cannot take your Bitcoin. They can torture you, send you to jail, and so on.
But these "we're the good guys" clown governments, that constantly criticize the far left, far right more, tell everyone how fascism is bad... Ye they'll have a real hard time convincing the french to "vote against Marine Le Pen because she is fascist" if they start sending people to jail for having some Bitcoin.
And even if they could take the BTC, it's much harder than just typing an IBAN and the number you want to withdraw.
The exact numbers do not matter, how much is liquid doesn't matter, but we know that in Japan the public has 15 trillion in savings, Germany 10 trillion, France 5 trillion, the USA 4.5 trillion (seriously... oh and it's not counting debt so it's probably much less actually - Germany average savings drop ~15% after personal debts but the USA got to drop A LOT). Not sure what it is for the UK.
Mainstream is slow. They cannot analyse anything complex, or even simple, by themselves, and they never predict anything.
So I think one day the average Joe will figure out "the good guys" are after their lifesavings and house, and, you know now it's so easy to move money around, we will see the biggest movement of money in history. Trillions at once.
If a fraction of all this money suddenly goes into BTC, well you know.
Bitcoin might be very volatile and risky, but ask people in Zimbabwe: It's better to have a little of something left than nothing at all.
The PM of Australia declared he was not interested in the nwo great reset I think (oh no he must be one of these crazy conspirayc theorists). I think anglo-saxon countries will be fine. The UK invented democracy and always came out ahead, they became the world greatest power after France "imposed sanctions" on them 2-3 centuries ago, they resisted NAZI Europe all by themselves 80 years ago, they have to be "the one".