I'll just get to the basics of how I'll be trading, or not trading as the case might be, for the next few days. Since there are people probably on edge from the failed drive up yesterday. Then in the comments section later, I'll elaborate on the possible paths once we are out of this current patch of sideways action, and per request, my reasons for continuing to be bullish on this market.
I'm sure you've noticed but my particular set of skillz center around pattern recognition and the application of those patterns to determine a nuanced prediction of price movements, as opposed to just going up, going down, and of course our least favorite, going sideways.
Right now the pattern we'll need to be focused with is known as the 3 Peaks and Domed House. It has been unfolding in conjunction with the Big W, more or less since the all-time-high back in December. I'll add more details about the pattern itself in the comments section.
For trading purposes, this pattern has just completed the 3 peaks, the middling peaks (which I will explain in more detail later and can be ignored for now), and has completed the 1st peak of the domed house.
For next next two days, you'll be experiencing up and down action as the 2nd and 3rd peaks of the domed house are created. While the peaks as pictured may seem like they might be tradable I will warn you that the peaks can vary in size and your trades could turn on you at any moment. You'd essentially be trading withinside of a triangle, and that's just bad strategy.
The aptest trading strategy, while we wait for the completion of the house, is to wait until the pattern completes. The pattern always completes with a fall from the 3rd peak of the domed house to where the 3 peaks are. Now, for those looking to short, I would recommend against that too. This is mainly because there is no set limit on how far the price will fall, and if I am correct, it won't be by very much, in the 8000 to 8400 range with 8400 being my first candidate. Second reason is that the fall is ususally accompanied by a short bump up in the middle, creating a right-side peak on the way down. You could easily mistake that bump for hitting the bottom.
So just wanted to add this quick post so you guys can get adjusted to where we are. Keep in mind that we are in an uptrend, and I do not believe that prices will come down below 8000. My minimum price target for BTC remains 14k. I'll explain how I get to that number in more detail in future posts.
Happy trading and for god sakes - STAY OUT OF THE TRIANGLE!!!!
I'm sure you've noticed but my particular set of skillz center around pattern recognition and the application of those patterns to determine a nuanced prediction of price movements, as opposed to just going up, going down, and of course our least favorite, going sideways.
Right now the pattern we'll need to be focused with is known as the 3 Peaks and Domed House. It has been unfolding in conjunction with the Big W, more or less since the all-time-high back in December. I'll add more details about the pattern itself in the comments section.
For trading purposes, this pattern has just completed the 3 peaks, the middling peaks (which I will explain in more detail later and can be ignored for now), and has completed the 1st peak of the domed house.
For next next two days, you'll be experiencing up and down action as the 2nd and 3rd peaks of the domed house are created. While the peaks as pictured may seem like they might be tradable I will warn you that the peaks can vary in size and your trades could turn on you at any moment. You'd essentially be trading withinside of a triangle, and that's just bad strategy.
The aptest trading strategy, while we wait for the completion of the house, is to wait until the pattern completes. The pattern always completes with a fall from the 3rd peak of the domed house to where the 3 peaks are. Now, for those looking to short, I would recommend against that too. This is mainly because there is no set limit on how far the price will fall, and if I am correct, it won't be by very much, in the 8000 to 8400 range with 8400 being my first candidate. Second reason is that the fall is ususally accompanied by a short bump up in the middle, creating a right-side peak on the way down. You could easily mistake that bump for hitting the bottom.
So just wanted to add this quick post so you guys can get adjusted to where we are. Keep in mind that we are in an uptrend, and I do not believe that prices will come down below 8000. My minimum price target for BTC remains 14k. I'll explain how I get to that number in more detail in future posts.
Happy trading and for god sakes - STAY OUT OF THE TRIANGLE!!!!
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If you are looking to trade the dome, big IF, we're about to jump up to 9000 any minute now.
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This would be the pattern to follow, on the 15min:
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Note that right after we reach that summit, we'll take a dip.
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There is a chance here that I drew the fractal pattern incorrectly and that we are inside of the triangle pictured, as opposed to just about headed for that dip. We're about to find out here in a minute. Should the dip happen, I'll be entering right at (E).
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I'm actually making trades on ETH while dual processing the BTC chart (the patterns are clearer on the BTC chart), so if I get my symbols, prices mixed up, you'll have to do that conversion yourselves. Apologies in advance.
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Again, I'm going to say do not trade within these peaks, it is dangerous and too risky. Your best bet is to HODL at the moment. I wouldn't even try to trade the dip, it won't be worth the headache. This is for entertainment purposes only, and to help with your pattern recognition skills.
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We are inside of a smaller Domed House peak within the middle peak of the Big W on the 5/15min chart. If you don't understand what that means, don't worry about it. If you did, do not start chasing that rabbit, you have no idea how far down the rabbit hole goes.
For non-rabbit chasers, this seeming bump up is temporary, we'll be resuming out decent to 8600 in a few minutes.
For non-rabbit chasers, this seeming bump up is temporary, we'll be resuming out decent to 8600 in a few minutes.
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we might stop around 8650...
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did you think we were going up when we hit this green patch? this is why you don't want to trade these peaks, and also why it's good to have an eye for patterns. Right now we're inside of a peak between the Eve and Adam double bottoms
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this second peak keeps being dragged out, I will be in shock if it doesn't it point E
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I think that settles, it, we're not hitting E. By the looks of the price action, we might go straight up to 10k right now before creating the peaks. Note, however, that a domed house will need to be created for the fractal pattern to complete, no matter how big or small. Also note that peak 1 might have already finished and that the next wave up might be peak 2. Too soon to say.
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For now, let's assume that the original chart above is how things will play out, and stay out of anything other than the 4hr and day charts.
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Home sweet home, I actually never closed my position from yesterday during the dip (a HOLDer at heart :D) so hopefully price will follow the trajectory of the overlay and make it to $9600 at minimum. At the $9600 mark we encounter a convergence of 3 resistance lines, which will more than likely drop us down. Right now by estimate for the drop down, should that happen at 9600, is 9200. So again, riding through it is probably your best bet.
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So just note that I don't think the dip will go as low as pictured, although it could.
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I refit the overlay on the 15min chart. Crazy how accurate it is right? I was surprised myself. The overlay ends, top wise, at 9400, so now we have a range in our upper target 9400-9600, with a 10k outlier should the bull really take charge. For psychological reasons, 10k is going to be a hard barrier to cross.
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when I saw this morning that the 15min fractal would not complete as I thought it would, I realized that we are not in the domed house. We are on our way up to the domed house. That realization created a cascading series of realizations to bring my predictions to where they are now. thanks for sticking with me through the craziness.