One thing I've noticed in this
BTCUSD
market is investors tendency to expect long term predictions to play out far too quickly. I am a believer in the lengthening market cycles between halvings (not the 4 year belief).
Based on the above observation, the current stumble in the stock market (yes, I do believe BTC is correlated with SPX in the short term - not long term) and the fact that everyone is expecting a break UP from the current wedge that started at the low of Jan 2018, I believe that we will have a break DOWN from this wedge , sometime around the halving. Contrary to popular opinion, I do believe the halving has been priced in for this year since the break out to 14k last year. We witnessed a similar break down in 2016 post halving and I believe we will see a similar, more drawn out reaction this time around.
In my view, we will then slowly trace down to meet 200 weekly MA as support around Aug/Sept 2020. Sometime after this, we will FINALLY cross the downtrend line of the triangle that we are currently in, and slowly make our way into the real bull market starting end of 2020 and into 2021.
My buy zone is listed in the chart, down about another 30% from current level. Regardless of the the stock market activity, I do not think we will go below the 200 week MA.
BTCUSD
market is investors tendency to expect long term predictions to play out far too quickly. I am a believer in the lengthening market cycles between halvings (not the 4 year belief). Based on the above observation, the current stumble in the stock market (yes, I do believe BTC is correlated with SPX in the short term - not long term) and the fact that everyone is expecting a break UP from the current wedge that started at the low of Jan 2018, I believe that we will have a break DOWN from this wedge , sometime around the halving. Contrary to popular opinion, I do believe the halving has been priced in for this year since the break out to 14k last year. We witnessed a similar break down in 2016 post halving and I believe we will see a similar, more drawn out reaction this time around.
In my view, we will then slowly trace down to meet 200 weekly MA as support around Aug/Sept 2020. Sometime after this, we will FINALLY cross the downtrend line of the triangle that we are currently in, and slowly make our way into the real bull market starting end of 2020 and into 2021.
My buy zone is listed in the chart, down about another 30% from current level. Regardless of the the stock market activity, I do not think we will go below the 200 week MA.