Since the ATH of $20k a year ago Bitcoin has continuously failed to break above resistance as well as stepping down in dramatic fashion bashing against the support at 6k until the bears finally broke through sinking the cryptocurrency to a low of nearly $3k. The bulls have shown resilience since the fall on November 12 at maintaining the price of BTC over 3k. This low price for Bitcoin has also brought with it trouble for miners - as for many the price of mining Bitcoin is higher than the profit yielded from it. We've even seen the result with some large miners and pools ceasing operations due to the low cost of Bitcoin. Fundamentally, this is a problem but not to be unexpected at these price levels. Smart miners had been aware of such a possibility and have funds on hand to float through the hard times while waiting on the potential Bitcoin recovery.
With that said let's take a look at the technicals and see where we are going to go from here. First and foremost there is no certainty in the market and the price of Bitcoin still has quite the possibility of swinging either way. As such we will discuss both the bullish and bearish case for the cryptocurrency as well as which case is more favored. Technical analysis is not some magic voodoo with definitive answers. It is simply an understanding of the information presented to give likelihoods and probabilities of which direction the price of a particular asset will go. This is why it is ALWAYS important to use strategically placed entries, target points, and most importantly in this current market STOP LOSSES to ensure that if we are wrong the loss is very much mitigated and we live to trade another day.
For the bulls Bitcoin is looking favorable with the RSI on the 3-Day bottoming out on November 24 and has consistently produced higher lows since this. December 15 has shown what is, in all probability, a Wave 1 with a complex correction Wave 2 that leaves us looking for a leap up to signal that Bitcoin is indeed entering a Wave 3. If you are looking to make entry off the recommendation if Elliott Wave Theory that means you are going to be waiting for the Wave 3 to break above the resistance line at the crest of Wave 1. Presenting an entry crossing $4240 with a Wave 3 target of $4900 and possibly as high as $5200 before entering a Wave 4 correction. Wave 4 is typically a shorter corrective wave and does not dive as deep. We'll be looking for Wave 4 to finish around $4470 with a swift push through Wave 5 presenting a target of $5700 - $5800. This is the ideal scenario, of course, and we will have the keep a close eye on the price action as we do not yet know for certain that the boogy bear is dead, and this could very well end poorly for the bulls. This bullish move is practically necessary for the bulls as a failure to make positive progress means the boogy bear is not dead and there is much pain yet to come.
For the bears Bitcoin must make a move up, soon, or the bears will once again regain confidence in being able to drive the cryptocurrency to new yearly lows. The failure of the bulls to take control of the market is likely to be, quite frankly, catastrophic for the price of Bitcoin and as a result devastating to the alt-coins, particularly the top 10's. Though this is not going to be as detailed a description for the bearish scenario as I have made for the bulls as this seems to be the less likely of the direction options I will still cover some estimations. A failure of the bulls to move up through this symmetrical triangle that has been created (In orange) is likely to see shorts camp up positions yet again breaking the $3000 support to test $2800. As this is not that far of a drive for the bears it is unlikely that $2800 will hold where Bitcoin will start to see long-term investors moving and dumping Bitcoin in order to save profits. This will result in the rapid depreciation of Bitcoin with a targeted bear push to as low as $1400. From this point, there will be a long-term consolidation and with the pride of the bulls severely injured it is unlikely that Bitcoin will move above the range of $2000 for an extended period of time.
With that said let's take a look at the technicals and see where we are going to go from here. First and foremost there is no certainty in the market and the price of Bitcoin still has quite the possibility of swinging either way. As such we will discuss both the bullish and bearish case for the cryptocurrency as well as which case is more favored. Technical analysis is not some magic voodoo with definitive answers. It is simply an understanding of the information presented to give likelihoods and probabilities of which direction the price of a particular asset will go. This is why it is ALWAYS important to use strategically placed entries, target points, and most importantly in this current market STOP LOSSES to ensure that if we are wrong the loss is very much mitigated and we live to trade another day.
For the bulls Bitcoin is looking favorable with the RSI on the 3-Day bottoming out on November 24 and has consistently produced higher lows since this. December 15 has shown what is, in all probability, a Wave 1 with a complex correction Wave 2 that leaves us looking for a leap up to signal that Bitcoin is indeed entering a Wave 3. If you are looking to make entry off the recommendation if Elliott Wave Theory that means you are going to be waiting for the Wave 3 to break above the resistance line at the crest of Wave 1. Presenting an entry crossing $4240 with a Wave 3 target of $4900 and possibly as high as $5200 before entering a Wave 4 correction. Wave 4 is typically a shorter corrective wave and does not dive as deep. We'll be looking for Wave 4 to finish around $4470 with a swift push through Wave 5 presenting a target of $5700 - $5800. This is the ideal scenario, of course, and we will have the keep a close eye on the price action as we do not yet know for certain that the boogy bear is dead, and this could very well end poorly for the bulls. This bullish move is practically necessary for the bulls as a failure to make positive progress means the boogy bear is not dead and there is much pain yet to come.
For the bears Bitcoin must make a move up, soon, or the bears will once again regain confidence in being able to drive the cryptocurrency to new yearly lows. The failure of the bulls to take control of the market is likely to be, quite frankly, catastrophic for the price of Bitcoin and as a result devastating to the alt-coins, particularly the top 10's. Though this is not going to be as detailed a description for the bearish scenario as I have made for the bulls as this seems to be the less likely of the direction options I will still cover some estimations. A failure of the bulls to move up through this symmetrical triangle that has been created (In orange) is likely to see shorts camp up positions yet again breaking the $3000 support to test $2800. As this is not that far of a drive for the bears it is unlikely that $2800 will hold where Bitcoin will start to see long-term investors moving and dumping Bitcoin in order to save profits. This will result in the rapid depreciation of Bitcoin with a targeted bear push to as low as $1400. From this point, there will be a long-term consolidation and with the pride of the bulls severely injured it is unlikely that Bitcoin will move above the range of $2000 for an extended period of time.