Bitcoin Trend Part III - B wave top? Time to SHORT soon
Hi again! Part three, the daily chart analysis, for XBTUSD:Kraken is here. Trading is similar to a mental martial art. So in order to be the best trader and TA I can be, I employ a system that uses multiple disciplines to pinpoint wave count/location, trend, and price action. Just a quick rundown on what to expect:
I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations.
I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
DAILY CHART XBTUSD:KRAKEN ANALYSIS (Part III of this series)
LWC: Location SC4E_B-cycle: Contracting Triangle, (A bottom = G2)
The yellow wave is the SC4D_Cycle C
The white wave is the projection for this likely E wave first wave
Chart Trend: Up, against the main trend. Recent Pivot G2: $9,850
Candlestick pattern - Engulfing:
• G is the star on the Monthly, but an engulfing red on Weekly
• Large red candle 2 weeks after G, with larger body on high volume than C up (C up = F3_G)
• G2 is a good candle pattern reversal for the B wave against the main DOWN trend
• G4 may mark the end of the uptrend from the G2 recent pivot low
• G4 stalling around $11,100 is flipping the polarity of the recent G5 double bottom, and is a sign of buyer weakness/seller strength, indicating further downside
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time relationships with G4: G, G2, F5, G3 (see trend chart below for detail)
- Failed at two strong resistance lines:
• .5 major retracement resistance at G_G2 trend fib (white Fib)
• 2.618% extension resistance off of the last corrective leg on G2_G4 trendline. The yellow fib line is this indicator, the red candle sandwiched between the two sets of three soldiers is the last leg price action driver
- Death Cross 8 days ago
- MACD still in bear territory, small signal line cross with falling volume = bearish divergence
- The price fell off the 61.8% pitchfork line at G (straw colored dashed line) and dropped down to now, riding the 75% pitchfork (white dashed line) with a nice upward bounce
- Bounced off the 20MA
- We can see the upward Bwave triangle that lasted about 10 days
- 4th wave violations Good triangle shape
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- C, E, & G triple tops
- G2 is showing to be a good reversal pivot due to the marching soldiers, but a B wave is three waves and G4 may be the top; will be confirmed in smaller time frame
- SC4A 50% fib resistance at $11,390
- Perfectly symmetrical 15 day bear rotation on four pivots: F5_G; G_G3; G3_G4
Projection/Trade Tactic
- SC4E bottom: $6,450 (Projected H)
- Start with part one, the monthly chart. On part two, weekly, this was the guidance:
• we will continue to wait and see a confirmation reversal formation from our current weekly candle that is set to complete in 5 days (9/20)
- G4 is showing to be a solid trend pivot back downwards. But not extremely strong. The numbers show that we may eclipse G4 soon.
- Ideally, we take a short trade tomorrow after we get a reversal candle
- If the price continues upward, past the current G4, there is heavy resistance from $11,390-$11,475
- May only go as high as $11,148.70, $11,165.30, or the 50 MA $11,275
- Do not, under any circumstance, try to predict the actual top of this possible B wave. We will verify the top after it forms and determine a short sell entry point
- Note the projected bottom for C in the short term (7-10 days)
- No fourth wave violation yet…
Here is the data:
LWC: Trends
- SC4D_Cycle B: F2_F3
- SC4D_Cycle C: F3_G
- SC4E_Cycle A: G_G2
- SC4E_Cycle B: G2_G4*
Trend Range G-Factor G-Degree Bar-Time
F4_F3 $ 817.20 28.5867 5,145.61 48
F2_F5 $ 1,756.60 41.9118 7,544.13 62
F5_G $ 354.00 18.8149 3,386.68 15
F5_G3 $ 58.00 7.6158 1,370.84 30
G_G3 $ 412.00 20.2978 3,653.60 15
G3_G2 $ 2,218.60 47.1020 8,478.36 7
G3_G4 $ 970.70 31.1561 5,608.09 15
G2_G4 $ 1,247.90 35.3256 6,358.61 8
G_G4 $ 1,382.70 37.1847 6,693.24 30
F5_G4 $ 1,028.70 32.0734 5,773.20 45
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
I perform trend analysis, the pivot high and low prices noted, then the LWC is determined. Then count the bars between the points to determine the trend rotation and/or appropriate elapsed time. Trend rotations, LWC transitions, and trend changes are connected. Time and price are connected. The connections are Fibonacci, Lucas, and Gann numbers. The connections must be verified, which I do for you. The MACD, RSI (on smaller time frames), and volume metrics validate LWC and rotation. Candlesticks confirm the trend changes via reversal and continuation patterns. After the Gann factors and degrees are calculated between the pivots and I confirm that the Fib extensions/MA/Andrews validate, I can have confidence in the location and determine entry, exit, and stop locations.
I have done all the work for you to comfortably suggest making certain trades on my posts, but verify my assessment!
If none of this makes any sense, you must learn LWC, Fibonacci extensions/ratios, Gann principles, Japanese Candlesticks and Andrews pitchfork usage. No one said this is easy. But put in the hard work, verify my work, and make good trades.
DAILY CHART XBTUSD:KRAKEN ANALYSIS (Part III of this series)
LWC: Location SC4E_B-cycle: Contracting Triangle, (A bottom = G2)
The yellow wave is the SC4D_Cycle C
The white wave is the projection for this likely E wave first wave
Chart Trend: Up, against the main trend. Recent Pivot G2: $9,850
Candlestick pattern - Engulfing:
• G is the star on the Monthly, but an engulfing red on Weekly
• Large red candle 2 weeks after G, with larger body on high volume than C up (C up = F3_G)
• G2 is a good candle pattern reversal for the B wave against the main DOWN trend
• G4 may mark the end of the uptrend from the G2 recent pivot low
• G4 stalling around $11,100 is flipping the polarity of the recent G5 double bottom, and is a sign of buyer weakness/seller strength, indicating further downside
Validation/Confirmation
- Multiple time relationships with G4: G, G2, F5, G3 (see trend chart below for detail)
- Failed at two strong resistance lines:
• .5 major retracement resistance at G_G2 trend fib (white Fib)
• 2.618% extension resistance off of the last corrective leg on G2_G4 trendline. The yellow fib line is this indicator, the red candle sandwiched between the two sets of three soldiers is the last leg price action driver
- Death Cross 8 days ago
- MACD still in bear territory, small signal line cross with falling volume = bearish divergence
- The price fell off the 61.8% pitchfork line at G (straw colored dashed line) and dropped down to now, riding the 75% pitchfork (white dashed line) with a nice upward bounce
- Bounced off the 20MA
- We can see the upward Bwave triangle that lasted about 10 days
- 4th wave violations Good triangle shape
- D and F first two rising bottoms
- C, E, & G triple tops
- G2 is showing to be a good reversal pivot due to the marching soldiers, but a B wave is three waves and G4 may be the top; will be confirmed in smaller time frame
- SC4A 50% fib resistance at $11,390
- Perfectly symmetrical 15 day bear rotation on four pivots: F5_G; G_G3; G3_G4
Projection/Trade Tactic
- SC4E bottom: $6,450 (Projected H)
- Start with part one, the monthly chart. On part two, weekly, this was the guidance:
• we will continue to wait and see a confirmation reversal formation from our current weekly candle that is set to complete in 5 days (9/20)
- G4 is showing to be a solid trend pivot back downwards. But not extremely strong. The numbers show that we may eclipse G4 soon.
- Ideally, we take a short trade tomorrow after we get a reversal candle
- If the price continues upward, past the current G4, there is heavy resistance from $11,390-$11,475
- May only go as high as $11,148.70, $11,165.30, or the 50 MA $11,275
- Do not, under any circumstance, try to predict the actual top of this possible B wave. We will verify the top after it forms and determine a short sell entry point
- Note the projected bottom for C in the short term (7-10 days)
- No fourth wave violation yet…
Here is the data:
LWC: Trends
- SC4D_Cycle B: F2_F3
- SC4D_Cycle C: F3_G
- SC4E_Cycle A: G_G2
- SC4E_Cycle B: G2_G4*
Trend Range G-Factor G-Degree Bar-Time
F4_F3 $ 817.20 28.5867 5,145.61 48
F2_F5 $ 1,756.60 41.9118 7,544.13 62
F5_G $ 354.00 18.8149 3,386.68 15
F5_G3 $ 58.00 7.6158 1,370.84 30
G_G3 $ 412.00 20.2978 3,653.60 15
G3_G2 $ 2,218.60 47.1020 8,478.36 7
G3_G4 $ 970.70 31.1561 5,608.09 15
G2_G4 $ 1,247.90 35.3256 6,358.61 8
G_G4 $ 1,382.70 37.1847 6,693.24 30
F5_G4 $ 1,028.70 32.0734 5,773.20 45
My overall TA strategic approach of various cryptocurrencies, in the form of my personal guidelines and foundational values driving trend analysis-based swing trading. Remember risk management and setting stops before you trade.
1) LWC is the map, time our compass - validate on price and confirm with candlesticks
2) EVERY trade: LWC location, time bearing, price validation, and candle confirmation are required
3) All LWC counts, Gann degrees/factors, and time assessments need validation at a smaller time frame
4) Trade off candlesticks that confirm pivots which display a trend change
5) Trust the process and numbers
6) Trade with the trend in your chosen time frame
7) Start large and work small
Trade active:
Our G4 was extended upwards and failed at the 50% retracement and 1.618 extension of last leg off the pitchfork bounce
G4 top pivot confirmed on the Daily by the long engulfing candles following G4 candle and strong G degrees and factors.
If we didn’t sell short @ $10,900, we can try to get in again on the hourly, but more accumulation upside may be possible for a few days on this B wave.
Failed at resistance on the 75% bear trend pitchfork line
Found short term support at the .236 retracement of trend G_G2
Currently trading in a small range that we will assess on the hourly chart.
MACD below the neutral line and signal line is descending, signifying further lack of buying strength
The first wave of the B is complete, but there may be more upside after this sideways range; we won't know until we look at the hourly.
The reason we do not go short yet, is we may be able to get a higher entry point after MORE TIME HAS ELAPSED
Our G4 was extended upwards and failed at the 50% retracement and 1.618 extension of last leg off the pitchfork bounce
G4 top pivot confirmed on the Daily by the long engulfing candles following G4 candle and strong G degrees and factors.
If we didn’t sell short @ $10,900, we can try to get in again on the hourly, but more accumulation upside may be possible for a few days on this B wave.
Failed at resistance on the 75% bear trend pitchfork line
Found short term support at the .236 retracement of trend G_G2
Currently trading in a small range that we will assess on the hourly chart.
MACD below the neutral line and signal line is descending, signifying further lack of buying strength
The first wave of the B is complete, but there may be more upside after this sideways range; we won't know until we look at the hourly.
The reason we do not go short yet, is we may be able to get a higher entry point after MORE TIME HAS ELAPSED