Bitcoin
XBTUSD.P
has finally broken down from the descending triangle to find support at the 3100 level. currently we can see a nice relief from the downside which can be attributed to shorts closing and support at the 3100-3200 level. looking at the high low variance we can expect a variance of between 50 and 500 dollars which should conclude to a $400 move in a particular direction. also judging the high low variance since the breakdown at the 6k level, we can see that the variance is following the same pattern as btc has for the past year and thus might suggest a hint as to future movements. With that said, i see 2 likely scenarios:
BULL CASE: Should we bounce from the bull flag forming on the daily chart, our target lines up with the (1) fib line to conclude the upside rally in line with the $400 of the variance. This will resemble a similar movement from 2014 where btc rallied off the support only to trickle down to an accumulation zone. which lasted a year long. Stability indicator suggests a movement between 23/12/2018 or 24/12/2018. granted should the movement take place on the 24th, we could see a surge to touch the 4800 zone
BEAR CASE: Should we break down further, a $400 drop will bring us to 3300 zone which will likely form a double bottom for btc. A double bottom bounce will gives a beautiful target of 5200, perfect room for the start of a new phase as per the high low variance projection.
XBTUSD.P
has finally broken down from the descending triangle to find support at the 3100 level. currently we can see a nice relief from the downside which can be attributed to shorts closing and support at the 3100-3200 level. looking at the high low variance we can expect a variance of between 50 and 500 dollars which should conclude to a $400 move in a particular direction. also judging the high low variance since the breakdown at the 6k level, we can see that the variance is following the same pattern as btc has for the past year and thus might suggest a hint as to future movements. With that said, i see 2 likely scenarios: BULL CASE: Should we bounce from the bull flag forming on the daily chart, our target lines up with the (1) fib line to conclude the upside rally in line with the $400 of the variance. This will resemble a similar movement from 2014 where btc rallied off the support only to trickle down to an accumulation zone. which lasted a year long. Stability indicator suggests a movement between 23/12/2018 or 24/12/2018. granted should the movement take place on the 24th, we could see a surge to touch the 4800 zone
BEAR CASE: Should we break down further, a $400 drop will bring us to 3300 zone which will likely form a double bottom for btc. A double bottom bounce will gives a beautiful target of 5200, perfect room for the start of a new phase as per the high low variance projection.