BTC has returned into the range above 8450.
Now we want to see it hold this level. Ideally not even going below 8580-8550 area.
Wicks or short-term pullbacks towards 8450 are still ok, as long as the price doesn't start closing 4h candles below that level.
While these conditions are true, I am looking for 9800 as the next target before a larger correction eventually takes place.
A break of 8050 on a closing basis will set up a correction down to 7500 at least, possibly lower towards 7200-6800.
My bias for now remains bullish as long as the price keeps the higher lows intact.
The resistances are more likely to be broken, and the supports are more likely to get bought up.
Now we want to see it hold this level. Ideally not even going below 8580-8550 area.
Wicks or short-term pullbacks towards 8450 are still ok, as long as the price doesn't start closing 4h candles below that level.
While these conditions are true, I am looking for 9800 as the next target before a larger correction eventually takes place.
A break of 8050 on a closing basis will set up a correction down to 7500 at least, possibly lower towards 7200-6800.
My bias for now remains bullish as long as the price keeps the higher lows intact.
The resistances are more likely to be broken, and the supports are more likely to get bought up.
Comment:
That wick has hit precisely at 7500.
If this doesn't make a relief rally from here towards 7800, then the next meaningful support is at 7330-7270, and a major one at 7000-6800 where I'd expect some kind of a stronger bounce for a possible swing play. But let's see how the price reacts once it reaches these levels.
If this doesn't make a relief rally from here towards 7800, then the next meaningful support is at 7330-7270, and a major one at 7000-6800 where I'd expect some kind of a stronger bounce for a possible swing play. But let's see how the price reacts once it reaches these levels.
Comment:
In case 7500 fails to hold, watch for a move like this on BTC.
It should be relatively quick and impulsive, then sharp reversal up when all the shorters feel too comfortable and start getting in agressively and too late.
Ideally a failed attempt by the bulls to push this, get rejected at 7580-7640.
Followed by a drop to 7280-7000 area (depends how strong the impulse is and how many liquidations it triggers), then a sharp turn upwards, catching shorters off guard, liquidating that side because it was relatively easy to short this on the way down, all the levels were respected, not even one higher high or a proper stop hunt/trap for sellers.
The bounce would then take the price towards 8100-8200 where all the stops are resting for shorters.
Once that is cleared, it's on the corssroads, and it can either continue above (if it breaks 8450, we'll take it as a confirmation), or (more likely for now) will be used as a fuel to reshort above (last point of supply by Wyckoff), and then take this lower towards 6800-6200 area.
IF the price reclaims 7850 from here, then this scenario is out of the play.
It should be relatively quick and impulsive, then sharp reversal up when all the shorters feel too comfortable and start getting in agressively and too late.
Ideally a failed attempt by the bulls to push this, get rejected at 7580-7640.
Followed by a drop to 7280-7000 area (depends how strong the impulse is and how many liquidations it triggers), then a sharp turn upwards, catching shorters off guard, liquidating that side because it was relatively easy to short this on the way down, all the levels were respected, not even one higher high or a proper stop hunt/trap for sellers.
The bounce would then take the price towards 8100-8200 where all the stops are resting for shorters.
Once that is cleared, it's on the corssroads, and it can either continue above (if it breaks 8450, we'll take it as a confirmation), or (more likely for now) will be used as a fuel to reshort above (last point of supply by Wyckoff), and then take this lower towards 6800-6200 area.
IF the price reclaims 7850 from here, then this scenario is out of the play.
Trade closed: target reached:
A wild ride. Levels on the chart were well respected.
I expect 10k to be reached as well.
Didn't update this here along the way, but if anyone's interested in more frequent updates, DM me for my telegram channel link (it's free).
I expect 10k to be reached as well.
Didn't update this here along the way, but if anyone's interested in more frequent updates, DM me for my telegram channel link (it's free).
Below is the main chart from above, but on daily timeframe.
The price didn't manage to hold that level, and is now on track to closing the daily candle below the main support area (8200-8050).
If that happens, my expectations remain the same upon breaking that level as described previously. I will target 7588-7500 initially and see the reaction there.
This could be the start of a deeper correction towards 6800, but that's looking too far ahead for me at this point.
In the short-term, I'd expect to see some consolidation here, then a push higher into low 8ks (8050-8180 will be the first resistance, and possibly into 8300s).
This is also the area where I'll be looking to enter short, because as long as the price remains below the pivot point at 8450 (daily close), I expect at least one more sell-off towards the lower support levels.
Ideally, the short entry area would be between 8300-8429, but I'm not sure we'll get that, it would be a bit "too easy".
If we do, that would be even more attractive due to the invalidation level (8450) being so near.
TL;DR version:
Everything below 8450 = bearish, expect another leg down, look for short entries.
Close above 8450 = bullish continuation, look for buy entries targeting 9800.