TLDR: Bullish between 6800 and 9600. The closer we are to 9600 and 10k the more likely I am to hedge short but for now, bullish and looking for longs.
All right, time to get back into this trading shit and make some money.
Yesterday, I took a swing and missed so go I'll through that first and then get into my analysis and potential moves.
The swing and miss:
Entered on the .786 with a stop at the bottom of the box and middle of the previous range. Ended up getting stopped out. I could’ve played this entry in two different ways. Sticking with the 4H set up and target, my stop should've been a lot wider (like 7200) since it would’ve been a swing position. On a smaller time frame, it would’ve been a lovely little day trade on 15M from 7516 to 7700 (weekly level and currently resistance) or even to just 7630 which was the top of that range at the time (before it broke up and attacked the weekly level).
It was my first trade after a long break so it was low leverage and small position size meaning that this lesson was quite cheap. Need to work on my stops for longer term positions. It also gave me a bit of insight into how you can do quick little scalps which was nice. I actually quite like the "idea" of it. Being mostly cash and then just dipping in, making your quick few % and then back to cash. If you can make these quick little grabs consistently then boy oh boy… Compounding is a great thing but consistency is the key. Don’t think I have enough confidence and consistency in my trading to do it quite yet, plus I have some heavy alt bags which are limiting my trading stack (which on the other hand could be a good idea - learning with a smaller stack).
Now into the analysis:
Weekly (www.tradingview.com/x/EviS7pUa/) - Looking good, pulling back after a two week rally up. The rally broke the volume downtrend which gives the move a bit more credibility. Im looking for this level around 7400-7200 to hold ideally. A break and confirmation of this level would be a decent short entry imo. If 7400-7200 doesn’t hold, ill be heavily long at 6800-6900. It was previously very strong resistance so wicking into it and confirming it as support on the weekly would be lovely. However, if 6800-6900 doesn’t hold, that’s when I start to get worried as I don’t see low 6000s and high 5000s holding again.
Daily (www.tradingview.com/x/gQmPfr7T/) - holding a bull block as support (the daily bull block is inside a weekly block which for now is also acting as support, the confluence is why I think its important for this level to hold). Wasn’t worried about this pull back when looking at the weekly and still not worried when looking at the daily. We hit a key resistance on overheated RSI and rejected for now. In my opinion, if you're bullish, this would be a decent long entry, the invalidation of this level holding is around 7200 and entering so close to invalidation is great R:R (obviously depends on what you target but targeting any previous highs above here is decent, 7800, 8100, 8400 and 9600 above that). Only slightly worrying thing about the daily chart is the volume on the dumps 31/07 specially but 24/07 is still highest volume day and it was bullish so until the bear volume outmatches that then I'm not too worried.
Slightly off topic because alt coins but, the bags that I've amassed in my early days and even recently through my moronity have been bleeding me out heavily. What's keeping me from selling? I feel like it's too late now. If I've held this long that I can't sell now. The thought of potentially selling the bottom is scarier to me than bleeding out completely. That being said, BTC dominance almost hit 50% and a lot of the alts are at historic lows. Im considering averaging down on my bags (again) but with stops this time so if they dump then I dump fresh purchases but not old bags.
All right, time to get back into this trading shit and make some money.
Yesterday, I took a swing and missed so go I'll through that first and then get into my analysis and potential moves.
The swing and miss:
Entered on the .786 with a stop at the bottom of the box and middle of the previous range. Ended up getting stopped out. I could’ve played this entry in two different ways. Sticking with the 4H set up and target, my stop should've been a lot wider (like 7200) since it would’ve been a swing position. On a smaller time frame, it would’ve been a lovely little day trade on 15M from 7516 to 7700 (weekly level and currently resistance) or even to just 7630 which was the top of that range at the time (before it broke up and attacked the weekly level).
It was my first trade after a long break so it was low leverage and small position size meaning that this lesson was quite cheap. Need to work on my stops for longer term positions. It also gave me a bit of insight into how you can do quick little scalps which was nice. I actually quite like the "idea" of it. Being mostly cash and then just dipping in, making your quick few % and then back to cash. If you can make these quick little grabs consistently then boy oh boy… Compounding is a great thing but consistency is the key. Don’t think I have enough confidence and consistency in my trading to do it quite yet, plus I have some heavy alt bags which are limiting my trading stack (which on the other hand could be a good idea - learning with a smaller stack).
Now into the analysis:
Weekly (www.tradingview.com/x/EviS7pUa/) - Looking good, pulling back after a two week rally up. The rally broke the volume downtrend which gives the move a bit more credibility. Im looking for this level around 7400-7200 to hold ideally. A break and confirmation of this level would be a decent short entry imo. If 7400-7200 doesn’t hold, ill be heavily long at 6800-6900. It was previously very strong resistance so wicking into it and confirming it as support on the weekly would be lovely. However, if 6800-6900 doesn’t hold, that’s when I start to get worried as I don’t see low 6000s and high 5000s holding again.
Daily (www.tradingview.com/x/gQmPfr7T/) - holding a bull block as support (the daily bull block is inside a weekly block which for now is also acting as support, the confluence is why I think its important for this level to hold). Wasn’t worried about this pull back when looking at the weekly and still not worried when looking at the daily. We hit a key resistance on overheated RSI and rejected for now. In my opinion, if you're bullish, this would be a decent long entry, the invalidation of this level holding is around 7200 and entering so close to invalidation is great R:R (obviously depends on what you target but targeting any previous highs above here is decent, 7800, 8100, 8400 and 9600 above that). Only slightly worrying thing about the daily chart is the volume on the dumps 31/07 specially but 24/07 is still highest volume day and it was bullish so until the bear volume outmatches that then I'm not too worried.
Slightly off topic because alt coins but, the bags that I've amassed in my early days and even recently through my moronity have been bleeding me out heavily. What's keeping me from selling? I feel like it's too late now. If I've held this long that I can't sell now. The thought of potentially selling the bottom is scarier to me than bleeding out completely. That being said, BTC dominance almost hit 50% and a lot of the alts are at historic lows. Im considering averaging down on my bags (again) but with stops this time so if they dump then I dump fresh purchases but not old bags.
Trade active:
first attempt for the day, wee little day trade, 5x and tiny position size. buy already triggered, targetting top of the channel and stop is 1H close below the channel
for the second attempt, gonna try the swing position i fucked up yesterday orders at 7371 and stop around 7183
for the second attempt, gonna try the swing position i fucked up yesterday orders at 7371 and stop around 7183
Trade closed: stop reached:
That lasted long. RIP.