Dear Trader,
I welcome you to this update! This is of course for professionals, but if you are a newcomer or someone who just has entered the crypto space, you are highly appreciated as well!
Today we will discuss the pre-halvening situation of BTC (6-Months from now) with a look on the current momentum of the market.
I will start with explaining the on-chart-tools I have used (1. What can you see on the chart) and continue with more specific price and market analysis (2.What does charting mean).
Just make sure to look at the chart on second window while reading- Let´s just jump right into it :-)
1.Setup
-We are on the 1-Day Chart. This means each candle represents 1 day of the market price action.
-2x vertical lines, which show the 2nd and 3rd BTC-Halvening.
-3x Horizontal lines, which show the top at 20K, the low at 3100 and the local top of the year 2019 of 14k.
-1x diagonal line, which puts two highs of 20K and 14K into persepective.
-1x BTC-Candelsticks. White displays a positive candle to the upside, orange does show us a candel which closed in the negative.
-2x Moving Averages (MA): The 200MA and the 50MA provides information about the average of the past 200 or 50 candles.
-Volume: The purple wave-form represent the average volume from the last bullmarket until today.
The lower level of the screen is divided into two indicators which are held in purple.
-The upper one: RSI (Relative-strenght-index): This is a technical indicator, which shows us the strenght or weakness of a market/stock- or in this case- of BTC.
-The lower one: RSI-Stochastic: This is basically the same, though it ranges between 1 and 100 which provides information about an average of weakness or strength.
2. Anaylsis
We can observe the rise of BTC to 20K and down to 3k and back up to 14K.
The All time high (ATH) was reached witch relatively low volume, due a lack of liquidity, which changed when it retraced back to 3100$. The increasing volume in
this bearmarket indicates, a lot of people were not happy the rallye stopped back then in december of 2018. A lot of people lost a lot of money, a lot of people made a ton of money. Same game as always...
Nevertheless, the market mostly went sideways and consolidated for about 9 months, in which the bottom of 6K was touched 5 times.
In november 2018 the volume was shrinking down to a minimum which opens the oppurtunity for individuals or groups to manipulate the price much easier than in volatile market sitautions.
What followed was a selloff of about 50% to 3100$. Sideways action followed until February 8th 2019, where a strong candle arised and officially underlined a change of trend.
-Until the end of June a bullmarket took place which topped at 14000$.
Current situation
-Right now we are observing a retrace. A retrace is a time of regeneration, where the market cools down. Imagine climbing up a mountain:
Of course you need a rest sometimes for some time, as well as when you climb down (which can be
faster and rougher).
-Today we have seen a massive dump which just started. You can see clearly the 4 tops which formed in the current retrace and the key resistance of 7200 was broken.
-In addition we can see the 200MA crossing the 100MA and 50MA. The last time this happen March/April 2018 the very last bearmarket had started. The same happend just now in Oct/Nov.
-The Rsi and Stoch. RSI show absolute weakness, which lead to the idea of beeing careful expecting more downfall and retesting 6800, 6000, 5400 and the low of 3100. We will see how far
the retrace envelops.
-Antoher observation is the following: Compared the bearmarket of 2018 to the little bearmarket of 2019 only,
you can see similarities: It rised up very quick, it dumped hard, went up again and went sideways until a huge dump
happened (sep 24th). This bearbehaviour looks exactly like the one big bearmarket in which we still might be in?
Idea: What if the 20K top was the ATH and 14K top of this year was simply a bulltrap? People were saying BTC is dead until this years´ parabollic rise. Now trader have hope again. Recently I noticed major soccer clubs in Europe having the BTC-logo on their shirts. Youtuber´s started producing a ton of content again and even news & media are pickung up BTC as a topic again into their program. What I am trying to say is, that this could be the biggest bulltrap ever in the history of BTC.
People think this is the start of new bullrun, what is-and I know the possibilities are very low- but what if this 14K top was just the high of the bulltrap to literally "trap" people into buying orders, because they smelled hope and "sick gainz"?
Just imagine it for a second...
Technically there is no reason that justifies a BTC price of what we see right now. This simply is the traders and miners´ greed and arbitariness.
I think we will retrace almost until the point we have started this rallye. I pointed it with arrows to see a possible movement of BTC forming a big wedge.
Guys, as always thank your for reading. I appreaciate it. If you want to support me, you can comment or smash that like button- would help a lot.
your quality-trader <3
I welcome you to this update! This is of course for professionals, but if you are a newcomer or someone who just has entered the crypto space, you are highly appreciated as well!
Today we will discuss the pre-halvening situation of BTC (6-Months from now) with a look on the current momentum of the market.
I will start with explaining the on-chart-tools I have used (1. What can you see on the chart) and continue with more specific price and market analysis (2.What does charting mean).
Just make sure to look at the chart on second window while reading- Let´s just jump right into it :-)
1.Setup
-We are on the 1-Day Chart. This means each candle represents 1 day of the market price action.
-2x vertical lines, which show the 2nd and 3rd BTC-Halvening.
-3x Horizontal lines, which show the top at 20K, the low at 3100 and the local top of the year 2019 of 14k.
-1x diagonal line, which puts two highs of 20K and 14K into persepective.
-1x BTC-Candelsticks. White displays a positive candle to the upside, orange does show us a candel which closed in the negative.
-2x Moving Averages (MA): The 200MA and the 50MA provides information about the average of the past 200 or 50 candles.
-Volume: The purple wave-form represent the average volume from the last bullmarket until today.
The lower level of the screen is divided into two indicators which are held in purple.
-The upper one: RSI (Relative-strenght-index): This is a technical indicator, which shows us the strenght or weakness of a market/stock- or in this case- of BTC.
-The lower one: RSI-Stochastic: This is basically the same, though it ranges between 1 and 100 which provides information about an average of weakness or strength.
2. Anaylsis
We can observe the rise of BTC to 20K and down to 3k and back up to 14K.
The All time high (ATH) was reached witch relatively low volume, due a lack of liquidity, which changed when it retraced back to 3100$. The increasing volume in
this bearmarket indicates, a lot of people were not happy the rallye stopped back then in december of 2018. A lot of people lost a lot of money, a lot of people made a ton of money. Same game as always...
Nevertheless, the market mostly went sideways and consolidated for about 9 months, in which the bottom of 6K was touched 5 times.
In november 2018 the volume was shrinking down to a minimum which opens the oppurtunity for individuals or groups to manipulate the price much easier than in volatile market sitautions.
What followed was a selloff of about 50% to 3100$. Sideways action followed until February 8th 2019, where a strong candle arised and officially underlined a change of trend.
-Until the end of June a bullmarket took place which topped at 14000$.
Current situation
-Right now we are observing a retrace. A retrace is a time of regeneration, where the market cools down. Imagine climbing up a mountain:
Of course you need a rest sometimes for some time, as well as when you climb down (which can be
faster and rougher).
-Today we have seen a massive dump which just started. You can see clearly the 4 tops which formed in the current retrace and the key resistance of 7200 was broken.
-In addition we can see the 200MA crossing the 100MA and 50MA. The last time this happen March/April 2018 the very last bearmarket had started. The same happend just now in Oct/Nov.
-The Rsi and Stoch. RSI show absolute weakness, which lead to the idea of beeing careful expecting more downfall and retesting 6800, 6000, 5400 and the low of 3100. We will see how far
the retrace envelops.
-Antoher observation is the following: Compared the bearmarket of 2018 to the little bearmarket of 2019 only,
you can see similarities: It rised up very quick, it dumped hard, went up again and went sideways until a huge dump
happened (sep 24th). This bearbehaviour looks exactly like the one big bearmarket in which we still might be in?
Idea: What if the 20K top was the ATH and 14K top of this year was simply a bulltrap? People were saying BTC is dead until this years´ parabollic rise. Now trader have hope again. Recently I noticed major soccer clubs in Europe having the BTC-logo on their shirts. Youtuber´s started producing a ton of content again and even news & media are pickung up BTC as a topic again into their program. What I am trying to say is, that this could be the biggest bulltrap ever in the history of BTC.
People think this is the start of new bullrun, what is-and I know the possibilities are very low- but what if this 14K top was just the high of the bulltrap to literally "trap" people into buying orders, because they smelled hope and "sick gainz"?
Just imagine it for a second...
Technically there is no reason that justifies a BTC price of what we see right now. This simply is the traders and miners´ greed and arbitariness.
I think we will retrace almost until the point we have started this rallye. I pointed it with arrows to see a possible movement of BTC forming a big wedge.
Guys, as always thank your for reading. I appreaciate it. If you want to support me, you can comment or smash that like button- would help a lot.
your quality-trader <3
Sic Parvis Magna - Greatness From Small Beginnings