More updates from earlier:
Wednesday:
#BTC #UPDATE - Well the brief try to hold the black channel failed, 11k had a minor reaction but not much and we have dropped back into the lower range blue channel.
Interestingly stopped right now at my lowest arrow for missed retests. Right between the pattern targets with the main thing holding us here likely to be the 61.8% fib.
We are starting to make a reversal pattern now however it is still unconfirmed and weak.
#BTC #UPDATE - Couldn't break 650 earlier. and fell to the next level down. We are again at a critical point seeing if this local low is a fakeout. Again confirmed - at least short term - if we can create a HL above the 10500-550 levels.
Friday:
#BTC #UPDATE - So on the way down below 11k it was quick, which you'll remember from my updates on the way up was predictable. Up too fast = down too fast!
We respected most of my levels on the way down but none were strong enough support to hold for long.
We went lower than I expected, but bounced strongly at 9500 right down the second lowest local missed retest level I had marked. Don't get too excited at the bounce yet - this is most likely just correcting the large downswing and it will only be when we see the correction of this small impulse (and whether it can hold higher than 9500) that we can more accurately predict whether we should be bullish. We are moving up but can already see volume dying off.
I'll need to check and update my levels today but the second chart shows you the fib retracement levels for this wave which do align nicely with them. (So well in fact I really think I need to be doing more work on target prediction because when I reflect it seems often blindingly obvious!!)
Today:
#BTC #UPDATE - Turns out I didn't need to update my immediate levels. We got the correction of the first up move I expected per my last post. Bounced exactly on the previously broken 9730 level making a HL.
I wouldn't have expected the move up so quickly but as we know that was helped along by Bakkt! Range is now 10250 - 10500 and it is looking promising we have held 10250 second time around for longer.
On the down side, volume is terrible, declining despite the price rise. CMF and MFI tell a similar story with divergence on the lower timeframes.
On higher tf, I am bullish while we remain above trend. On lower tf, we are still simply correcting this immediate downtrend until I can see decent support being made and held with volume against it.
Low tf picture - Still very much a bear flag unless we can take out 10500 and close above with some decent buy volume. Wicks off the lows are promising along with lack of resistance above so if we do go up it should be quick back to 11280.
Given the move was Bakkt impelled, if we break 10250 I would expect a test of 9400. And if this is a bear flag, the pole target takes us to 8k but let's cross that bridge if we come to it!
As always, I would really prefer for us to range here a while to gain support though. Too many big moves quickly don't do us much good longer term!
Wednesday:
#BTC #UPDATE - Well the brief try to hold the black channel failed, 11k had a minor reaction but not much and we have dropped back into the lower range blue channel.
Interestingly stopped right now at my lowest arrow for missed retests. Right between the pattern targets with the main thing holding us here likely to be the 61.8% fib.
We are starting to make a reversal pattern now however it is still unconfirmed and weak.
#BTC #UPDATE - Couldn't break 650 earlier. and fell to the next level down. We are again at a critical point seeing if this local low is a fakeout. Again confirmed - at least short term - if we can create a HL above the 10500-550 levels.
Friday:
#BTC #UPDATE - So on the way down below 11k it was quick, which you'll remember from my updates on the way up was predictable. Up too fast = down too fast!
We respected most of my levels on the way down but none were strong enough support to hold for long.
We went lower than I expected, but bounced strongly at 9500 right down the second lowest local missed retest level I had marked. Don't get too excited at the bounce yet - this is most likely just correcting the large downswing and it will only be when we see the correction of this small impulse (and whether it can hold higher than 9500) that we can more accurately predict whether we should be bullish. We are moving up but can already see volume dying off.
I'll need to check and update my levels today but the second chart shows you the fib retracement levels for this wave which do align nicely with them. (So well in fact I really think I need to be doing more work on target prediction because when I reflect it seems often blindingly obvious!!)
Today:
#BTC #UPDATE - Turns out I didn't need to update my immediate levels. We got the correction of the first up move I expected per my last post. Bounced exactly on the previously broken 9730 level making a HL.
I wouldn't have expected the move up so quickly but as we know that was helped along by Bakkt! Range is now 10250 - 10500 and it is looking promising we have held 10250 second time around for longer.
On the down side, volume is terrible, declining despite the price rise. CMF and MFI tell a similar story with divergence on the lower timeframes.
On higher tf, I am bullish while we remain above trend. On lower tf, we are still simply correcting this immediate downtrend until I can see decent support being made and held with volume against it.
Low tf picture - Still very much a bear flag unless we can take out 10500 and close above with some decent buy volume. Wicks off the lows are promising along with lack of resistance above so if we do go up it should be quick back to 11280.
Given the move was Bakkt impelled, if we break 10250 I would expect a test of 9400. And if this is a bear flag, the pole target takes us to 8k but let's cross that bridge if we come to it!
As always, I would really prefer for us to range here a while to gain support though. Too many big moves quickly don't do us much good longer term!
Come say hi @elisa_crypto on twitter!
