UnknownUnicorn1824771

XBT INTRA-DAY UPDATE - 17/12/18

BITMEX:XBTUSD.P   Bitcoin
XBT INTRA-DAY UPDATE - 17/12/18

OUR MOST RECENT INTRA-DAY updates at 3610$ to open shorts till 3150$-3250$ WAS ACHIEVED! Moreover, once price was at 3300$, I made another update stating that we will probably see more bearish activity till 3150$ and at this price, we will be looking to open long positions again with the stated targets of 3300,3350 and finally 3427$.

Like the wizard I am, we saw this occur and essentially the rejection is now coming in at 3427$.

This is a new INTRA-DAY UPDATE and we will look at what to expect next for XBT, which is a futures product created by bitmex that is essentially controlled by the bearish cryptocurrency traders and XBT moves in line with BTC (finex), the other pair we focus heavily on from a bullish perspective as FINEX is a bullish price leader whereas MEX is a BEARISH PRICE LEADER.

What can we see on the hourly charts for XBT ?
- We can see that as expected we saw a rise to 3427$ and at this price, we saw the ceiling come into play once again. We can see that EMA 200 currently lies just below price at 3320$ on the hourly chart. We can also see that the nearest down trend line for major resistance is currently at 3610$ (another level we need to be eyeing up for further upward movement and a rejection as this is a clear resistance zone just like 3410$).
- None the less, with general bullish price action looking very fatigued and with most momentum indicators at oversold levels, I feel that a rejection from this 3427$ level is imminent. We will need to keep an eye out for support being used at 3320-3300$ as this was a previous resistance zone and now a price floor. We can see that on the hourly, RSI/ROC (the bottom indicator) is extremely oversold and looks like a wedge out resistance on this chart is coming to an end. We will probably see a drop to the blue line on RSI/ROC for further support and this lies at the 52 LEVEL for RSI/ROC. Moreover, we can also see that on RSI, we have slightly spiked above clear bearish territory indicated at 81 level but I see a drop to the 60 level for further support as a necessary step for the next move XBT/BTC has lined up.
- These drops in the short term will lead to 3300$-3250$ level, which was a previous price ceiling and now a price floor.

What can we see on the 4 hourly chart for XBT ?
- We can see that on the 4 hourly charts, just like the hourly charts, the bullish price action seems fatigued now that we are at the 3427$ ceiling. We stated in our previous INTRA-DAY breakdown for XBT that we should expect to see support at the 40 level for RSI/ROC and this was our indicator for a long entry on XBT. I also planned well ahead and stated that once we reach the 62 level on RSI/ROC, we should use this level as resistance in line with a price increase to 3427$. We can also see the black trend line on RSI/ROC, which was previously a support on the hourly charts and is now acting as a resistance - its important to note that this black trend line on RSI/ROC could be used as support till 3427$ once again to cause short REKTs on the hourly charts. None the less, on the 4 hourly charts, we can see that this black trend line on RSI/ROC is in fact a resistance in line with price and 62 level on RSI/ROC.
- Moreover, looking at our RSI momentum indicator we can see that the 81 level, which was suggested as a resistance to keep an eye out for shorts is holding up very well on the 4 hourly charts. We can expect a rejection from this level to 37-30 LEVEL for support and this should be in line with a drop back down to 3250$. Now we can deduce that this level should hold for the bulls as support and we could even get some slippage back down to 3200$ in essence.

What can we see on the DAILY chart for XBT ?
- On the daily charts, we can see that MA is currently being used as resistance but we can also see that downtrend line currently lies at 3610$ and bullish activity to this price will not occur instantly but only after price drops have occurred on the 4 hourly and 1 hourly zones to our bullish support zones on our price chart and momentum indicators. Therefore, what I currently have in mind is that the BITMEX bears will drop price back down to 3250$ and 3300$ at the minimum in order to use previous resistance/ceiling zones as price floors for increased upward momentum to a maximum price of 3610$ on MEX!
- We can also see that whatever bullish activity we receive will and should be considered a short squeeze and not a long term trend/ or even a medium term trend to the upside. We can see on our RSI/ROC indicator that we are near a breakout to the downside and our main focus should be to time our shorts to our next downward major targets of 2.1k,2800$ and most likely medium term support of 2950$.

What can we deduce from all this ?
- We should EXPECT a rejection from 3427$ for now but this may only occur after some sideway movement to highs of 3450$ as the hourly is currently at a brief but weak support.
- To the downside, following a rejection from 3427$, we can target 3300$ as our first target and 3250$ as our second target. This will allow us to create higher lows and also eventually lead to higher highs before a breakout to the downside at 3610$. Moreover, for any reliable short squeeze to 3610$ to occur then we must return to previous major support zones first.

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