#XBTUSD $BTC what to do next and how not to get #REKT

Hello Lads and Ladies,

Toady we will be taking a look at the XBTUSD chart especially suited for our Bitmex friends. As we have see the ETF hype and pump, we have now experienced a very hard retracement of almost 1600$ from the very top.

Looking at XBTUSD right now, we are still on the short term downtrend from the last pump/hype. This retracement is still called a retracement because we did not have any negative news and still have the possibility of rising and going above the previous high. The reason for this would be of course in first case the positive news on the 10th of August. Looking at it from a TA perspective, which is more in the background of the analysis because the pump was news-based and not a natural movement, this has been the third big bounce from the area of 6200-5800. Looking at he bounces, we create a big leg up with mostly one small stop in between. After the first top, we see normally a type of bigger retracement, nevertheless after this retracement we are followed by a second big leg up above the previous top. This would be in our case a second leg up ABOVE the previous top of 8500.

Yet, this retracement from basically 8300 had a hard time going down with many bear flags on its way and a strong pull up. All of this does not seem like a drop that one would expect, tricking a lot of players to open a long position. Almost the same is happening with XBTUSD right now. We are in a very decisive area which might determine the outcome and movement of XBTUSD of this month.
To be more specific, we are right now in a sort of channel between 6880 and 7200. Getting near to those lines of support and resistance one might consider opening an according position. Breaking one of these lines would most likely show us the new direction of this month.

Looking at commonly used indicators, we are right now even on bigger timeframes on a oversold area. Even the daily StochRSI is at 0 , 0. As a matter of fact this is actually a positive and bullish sign, indicating us a reversal soon. In addition to that we are still expecting news on the 10th of August on an ETF. Normally if big players or market making manipulators would know that there will be negative news coming out, they would let the price rise and hype as much as possible to have the best entry for a SHORT position. In the opposite scenario, they would expect good news and keep the price as low as possible to have the best entry before a humungous pump. Yet, this is a lot of conspiracy and nothing to rely on.

Following by that, we can see that on many timeframes we are in a oversold region, yet still have enough space for an additional drop. Taking into consideration that we are right now only 50$ away from the channel-support this would mean for us finding new bottoms and maybe even making a new 2018-Low and after that continuing with a more natural movement and not only news-based. In addition to that, a delay on the ETF decision or even a negative outcome would definitely break the recent support and pull us towards new support and lows. The very last hope is 6600 for XBTUSD. Should we not see a rapid bounce from there an important ascending support will be broken and we will seek lower lows with a very high chance.

Nevertheless, there are actually two more bullish signs that might be not very relevant because of the timeframes, yet should be considered before making a trading decision. This would be for the first on a daily time frame, applying the Fibonacci Retracement from 5870 to 8500 the 61.8% support is actually at the recent channel support of 6880. Showing us a possible trend reversal and the first bullish sign. The second bullish sign can be seen on the 1h timeframe as we are forming a double bottom at the channel-support, also indicating us a possible trend reversal OR at least a short term direction to test the channel resistance at 7200.

Comment:

The trading here is the best with double-staggering the orders to the channel resistance/support and then using a double amount Stop-Loss right behind these lines which wold be 6839 and 7221. The idea behind this is very simple, yet productive and gives one the most opportunities. First, you either get a perfect LONG or SHORT inside the channel. If it leaves this channel you still have a small percentage to confirm a breakout and immediately open a position in the direction of the pump with a very high risk-reward-ratio. As a side note - watch 6950-7000 closely.

Comment:

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