I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 (low confidence prediction) | 1-2 weeks: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Couldn’t remember the last time I saw the technicals split so evenly. Discussed the importance of have the discipline to sit out when you are itching for action and there are not any good trades on the table/ Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,634 | R = $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support at 35,500 - triple bottom on 1 hr' chart
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0021%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +2.09% | 26 = Being tested for support
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.26% | 128 = -9.20%
Volume: Decreasing volume as price rises.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,893 | 0.5 = $7,166
Candlestick analysis: Yesterday had a hanging man at resistance. Today is forming a doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud and Kijun waiting at $7,150 should be strong resistance. C clamp on weekly.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly R4. Daily G5
Visible Range: Point of control + high volume node at $6,700 (5 day lookback). Has broken through HVN’s on 1 day lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 123h = +0.82% | 1d = +0.37% | 1w = +7.40% | 2w = +8.44% | 1m = -15.22%
Bollinger Bands: Top of daily band acting as strong resistance as expected. Has me rethinking my short squeeze prediction over the next week.
Trendline: Descending triangle
Daily Trend: Choppy
Fractals: UP = $7,153 | DOWN = $6,217
On Balance Volume: Looks to be creating a lower high on the weekly. No div’ on daily.
ADX: Weekly ADX is starting to flatten out. Daily is threatening to cross 20. As far as I am concerned the two options are: 3+ months of continued consolidation | capitulation to < $4,000. The ADX is starting to point towards the former option.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div' in daily and weekly
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.41 | D = 48.34
Stoch: Just made bullish cross above 20 on weekly. Daily still trending up. %K angling down and threatening to cross. Has failed to do so the last three times.
Summary: The outlook is still far too neutral for me to take a position on BTC'. Daily BB acting as strong resistance while the CMF' has significant bull divergences. Are the shorts finding support and getting ready to create a new all time high or are we going to rally off the weekly reversal candles?
If you are patient over the next few days/weeks then I strongly expect a favorable position to present itself. If we rally to $7,000 + then it will be a great selling opportunity. If we breakdown $6,500 support then it could also be a great selling opportunity.
In the meantime I am keeping a close eye on ETH:USD. There is a bear flag on the 4 hour chart with a target of $111 which is right in line with horizontal support. Furthermore the ethusdshorts’ are close to equilibrium, until btcusdshorts’.
1 day - 1 week: short squeeze/test top of triangle at $7,500 -$7,650 (low confidence prediction) | 1-2 weeks: Retest $6,000 | 1 month predictions: < $5,750 by 9/24 | bottom prediction: $3,000 by 10/30
Previous analysis/position: Couldn’t remember the last time I saw the technicals split so evenly. Discussed the importance of have the discipline to sit out when you are itching for action and there are not any good trades on the table/ Sidelines
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,634 | R = $6,800
BTCUSDSHORTS: Finding support at 35,500 - triple bottom on 1 hr' chart
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0021%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = +2.09% | 26 = Being tested for support
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -3.26% | 128 = -9.20%
Volume: Decreasing volume as price rises.
FIB’s: 0.618 = $6,893 | 0.5 = $7,166
Candlestick analysis: Yesterday had a hanging man at resistance. Today is forming a doji.
Ichimoku Cloud: Cloud and Kijun waiting at $7,150 should be strong resistance. C clamp on weekly.
TD’ Sequential: Weekly R4. Daily G5
Visible Range: Point of control + high volume node at $6,700 (5 day lookback). Has broken through HVN’s on 1 day lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 123h = +0.82% | 1d = +0.37% | 1w = +7.40% | 2w = +8.44% | 1m = -15.22%
Bollinger Bands: Top of daily band acting as strong resistance as expected. Has me rethinking my short squeeze prediction over the next week.
Trendline: Descending triangle
Daily Trend: Choppy
Fractals: UP = $7,153 | DOWN = $6,217
On Balance Volume: Looks to be creating a lower high on the weekly. No div’ on daily.
ADX: Weekly ADX is starting to flatten out. Daily is threatening to cross 20. As far as I am concerned the two options are: 3+ months of continued consolidation | capitulation to < $4,000. The ADX is starting to point towards the former option.
Chaikin Money Flow: Bull div' in daily and weekly
RSI (30 setting): W = 49.41 | D = 48.34
Stoch: Just made bullish cross above 20 on weekly. Daily still trending up. %K angling down and threatening to cross. Has failed to do so the last three times.
Summary: The outlook is still far too neutral for me to take a position on BTC'. Daily BB acting as strong resistance while the CMF' has significant bull divergences. Are the shorts finding support and getting ready to create a new all time high or are we going to rally off the weekly reversal candles?
If you are patient over the next few days/weeks then I strongly expect a favorable position to present itself. If we rally to $7,000 + then it will be a great selling opportunity. If we breakdown $6,500 support then it could also be a great selling opportunity.
In the meantime I am keeping a close eye on ETH:USD. There is a bear flag on the 4 hour chart with a target of $111 which is right in line with horizontal support. Furthermore the ethusdshorts’ are close to equilibrium, until btcusdshorts’.
Comment:
Wanted to clarify that after further review I do not think ETH:USD is a good sell right now. Am expecting bounce to $300 - $350 and will open a large short if that happens.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/