After a strong impulse to the upside from 3100s, with no deeper pullbacks, the price is now consolidating in a symmetrical triangle structure.
Symmetrical triangles are usually continuation patterns.
When this pattern forms during a downtrend, it has 57% probability to break to the downside and continue the previous movement (we've seen a few of those play out well over the past weeks).
When it forms during an uptrend (and we have a local uptrend here), it has a 63% probability of breaking to the upside and continuing the uptrend for another push.
These odds are still too unpredictable, which is why unless we're in a trade from before, it makes more sense to wait for a breakout on either side, and then look to position ourselves for a trade in that direction for a more reliable move.
The price is currently under a major resistance zone at 4365-4440.
Bullish momentum is supported by 3780 area. As long as the price stays above it, I see more upside and more attempts to push higher (and potentially succeeding to break 4160 towards 4365-4400).
Breaking 4440 on the daily timeframe and confirming it as a support will lead the price towards 5k.
Failing to hold 3780 is likely to result in a deeper pullback to 3656 and 3560-3476 zone which will add uncertainty to the bullish argument (but still not kill it).
Closing candles below 3560-3476 area will kill the bullish scenario and turn this into a range at best (which means retesting the lows at 3250) and bearish continuation towards new lows in the worst case scenario.
Any speculative buys from 3925-3880 area must have a stop loss below 3780 (in case you feel like a more agressive trader and want to go in here).
The rest of the targets, both to the upside and to the downside are marked on the chart.
This chart can be used for scalping, swing trading and finding potential take-profit targets or buy areas (depending on which way this triangle breaks out).
Short-term bias: bullish as long as 3780 holds.
Medium-term bias: bullish only if 4400 is taken out and confirmed as support on the daily timeframe (will look for 5k in that case).
Otherwise, it will simply print a lower low (if 4160 was the top) and is likely to fall again.
Medium-long-term bias: Anything below 6400 is still a full-on bear market and all the relief reallies are better sold/shorted than "hodling" and hoping for 20k, no matter how euphoric people become after a week of green across the board (unless you're investing with a 5 year-horizon, in that case this doesn't apply to you).
Symmetrical triangles are usually continuation patterns.
When this pattern forms during a downtrend, it has 57% probability to break to the downside and continue the previous movement (we've seen a few of those play out well over the past weeks).
When it forms during an uptrend (and we have a local uptrend here), it has a 63% probability of breaking to the upside and continuing the uptrend for another push.
These odds are still too unpredictable, which is why unless we're in a trade from before, it makes more sense to wait for a breakout on either side, and then look to position ourselves for a trade in that direction for a more reliable move.
The price is currently under a major resistance zone at 4365-4440.
Bullish momentum is supported by 3780 area. As long as the price stays above it, I see more upside and more attempts to push higher (and potentially succeeding to break 4160 towards 4365-4400).
Breaking 4440 on the daily timeframe and confirming it as a support will lead the price towards 5k.
Failing to hold 3780 is likely to result in a deeper pullback to 3656 and 3560-3476 zone which will add uncertainty to the bullish argument (but still not kill it).
Closing candles below 3560-3476 area will kill the bullish scenario and turn this into a range at best (which means retesting the lows at 3250) and bearish continuation towards new lows in the worst case scenario.
Any speculative buys from 3925-3880 area must have a stop loss below 3780 (in case you feel like a more agressive trader and want to go in here).
The rest of the targets, both to the upside and to the downside are marked on the chart.
This chart can be used for scalping, swing trading and finding potential take-profit targets or buy areas (depending on which way this triangle breaks out).
Short-term bias: bullish as long as 3780 holds.
Medium-term bias: bullish only if 4400 is taken out and confirmed as support on the daily timeframe (will look for 5k in that case).
Otherwise, it will simply print a lower low (if 4160 was the top) and is likely to fall again.
Medium-long-term bias: Anything below 6400 is still a full-on bear market and all the relief reallies are better sold/shorted than "hodling" and hoping for 20k, no matter how euphoric people become after a week of green across the board (unless you're investing with a 5 year-horizon, in that case this doesn't apply to you).
Comment:
Bearish RSI divergence on 4h. Rising wedge forming (still not completed).
Not what bulls want to see here.
As long as 3900 holds, it can still make another push to the upside.
Below 3900, especially if it breaks it and retests it like the red line below, it is highly likely to fill that gap at 3650 and 3560-3476 areas which remained unfilled since the price didn't retrace there before moving upwards a few days ago.
Not what bulls want to see here.
As long as 3900 holds, it can still make another push to the upside.
Below 3900, especially if it breaks it and retests it like the red line below, it is highly likely to fill that gap at 3650 and 3560-3476 areas which remained unfilled since the price didn't retrace there before moving upwards a few days ago.
Comment:
The wedge effect and the bearish divergence played out.
Possible retest of 3900-3950 max, then I expect it to continue towards 3650 and then 3560.
Possible retest of 3900-3950 max, then I expect it to continue towards 3650 and then 3560.
Broke out of the triangle as well.
Looking for targets in the 4365-4400 area next.