Retrace and then a potential test of downtrend or lower lows

Short term, BTC is losing volume and showing signs of a potential retrace to the 0.618 fib - 0.5 fib level around 7500. That box of support needs to hold in order for us to potentially get a bounce out of the 120 day log downtrend (Dashed Line). A potential trade setup can come from any of these support resistance lines, but I am personally looking a short play at the local resistance level of 8150 with a Target Price somewhere within the box indicated. There has been a bearish divergence for a while now that so far hasn't given us as much of a retrace as one would expect. Could this be extreme bullishness or simply a delayed retrace?

From a fundamental analysis perspective, its important to note today is the end of tax season in the United States. Many analysts have noted that this could be a catalyst for growth, but we need to see more dollars physically enter the cryptocurrency market or else we risk seeing lower lows.

Comment:

tightening order block, matches up quite nicely with a potential head and shoulders on hourly.