Note: For this update I am using the Bitmex chart.
In my last post I called for a Bitcoin rally but was also expecting a possibility of a dip before it played out. It appears I got lucky on my call and it played out just as I expected. We had a textbook breakout from a falling wedge (which I did not discuss) and a beautiful rally as a result.
So what is Bitcoin doing now?
Yesterday we saw another small pump after a bit of consolidation. The pump was rejected at a prior weekly close level of 4239.5. This was expected as it was the first test of that level since the break out from the current bottom.
On the 15 minute chart we can see that the resulting retrace has BTC testing and finding support at thePoint of Control (use the VSPV indicator) established on Dec 20.
We could easily see Bitcoin test a lower close level like yesterday's close as I am not expecting the point of control to hold. That would be normal price action as we are seeing some increased sell volume on lower time frames like the hourly. Personally I would love to see BTC continue to hold this level, or move higher before today's daily close as it would be awesome to see, but the market is going to do what it is going to do. Finally, zooming out on the 24 hour chart you can see BTC is working on an ascending triangle.
The next moves up are going to be crucial for Bitcoin. I am currently looking for us to break two weekly close levels, $4239.5 and the crucial level of $4384. If we get past $4384, I would expect a very nice continuation upwards above the $4500 range and into the $5k range. I will hedge with shorts and tight stop losses at each major untested close level as there will likely be initial rejections. At minimum, this will serve as a nice scalp opportunity. Remember, this is still a bear market even if we are seeing bullish behavior in the short term. Bitcoin is eventually going to break some hearts.
As for indicators, look for the bullish divergence everyone is calling on the RSI and look at your daily momentum indicators. We still see more buying pressure than selling pressure on the daily.
Be careful, don't get rekt.
In my last post I called for a Bitcoin rally but was also expecting a possibility of a dip before it played out. It appears I got lucky on my call and it played out just as I expected. We had a textbook breakout from a falling wedge (which I did not discuss) and a beautiful rally as a result.
So what is Bitcoin doing now?
Yesterday we saw another small pump after a bit of consolidation. The pump was rejected at a prior weekly close level of 4239.5. This was expected as it was the first test of that level since the break out from the current bottom.
On the 15 minute chart we can see that the resulting retrace has BTC testing and finding support at thePoint of Control (use the VSPV indicator) established on Dec 20.
We could easily see Bitcoin test a lower close level like yesterday's close as I am not expecting the point of control to hold. That would be normal price action as we are seeing some increased sell volume on lower time frames like the hourly. Personally I would love to see BTC continue to hold this level, or move higher before today's daily close as it would be awesome to see, but the market is going to do what it is going to do. Finally, zooming out on the 24 hour chart you can see BTC is working on an ascending triangle.
The next moves up are going to be crucial for Bitcoin. I am currently looking for us to break two weekly close levels, $4239.5 and the crucial level of $4384. If we get past $4384, I would expect a very nice continuation upwards above the $4500 range and into the $5k range. I will hedge with shorts and tight stop losses at each major untested close level as there will likely be initial rejections. At minimum, this will serve as a nice scalp opportunity. Remember, this is still a bear market even if we are seeing bullish behavior in the short term. Bitcoin is eventually going to break some hearts.
As for indicators, look for the bullish divergence everyone is calling on the RSI and look at your daily momentum indicators. We still see more buying pressure than selling pressure on the daily.
Be careful, don't get rekt.
Comment:
Dec 20th Point of Control did not hold. Looking for a new support level. Idea has not changed.