Gold:Continue to watch the rebound after the callback
Last week, international gold continued its rally as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March as scheduled but also provided additional liquidity support to address the banking sector's liquidity crisis. Gold maintained its overall strength in a risk-averse environment.
The liquidity turmoil in the European and American banking industry continued last week. Although the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank responded quickly to mitigate the individual operational risks of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, new bank volatility risks continued to emerge. On Friday, Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps surged significantly, and although no obvious catalyst was found, investors' concerns about the health of the European banking industry persisted. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled that week, choosing a middle ground between financial stability and anti-inflation to prevent the market from showing more obvious reverse games. However, Treasury Secretary Yellen, during a Senate hearing, stated that the U.S. banking system is still sound, and the government is not currently considering providing "comprehensive insurance" for all bank deposits, which once again caused market concerns. Although Yellen changed her tone during a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing the next day, stating that the government is prepared to take additional measures to ensure the safety of American depositors' funds if a similar situation to Silicon Valley Bank's occurs in the future, market participants would still prepare for hedging due to unclear policy guidance, and gold assets are expected to continue to benefit and boost the price center.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday local time, expressing a cautious attitude towards recent banking crises and indicating that the rate hike is coming to an end. After this rate hike, the target range for the federal funds rate has risen to 4.75%-5%.
On the US Treasury side, the government is prepared to take additional measures to ensure the safety of depositors' funds. During a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on Thursday local time, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the government is prepared to take additional measures to ensure the safety of depositors' funds. Yellen's statement at the House committee hearing was significantly different from her statement the day before in the Senate.
A hawkish statement by a Fed official adjusted market expectations. St. Louis Fed President and Fed hawk, James Bullard, stated on Friday that the first quarter economic data in the United States was stronger than expected, and he increased his forecast for the year-end interest rates due to the continued strength in the economy. This forecast is based on the assumption that the banking industry pressure will ease. Bullard explained that his previous expectation for the year-end interest rate was 5.375%, and it has now been increased by 25 basis points to 5.625%. Following Bullard's statement, market tightening sentiment was rekindled, and the US dollar quickly rose.
The gold has broken through the support and has turned bearish in the short term.
The bullish outlook on gold is based on several reasons:
1.Gold has been oscillating at high levels, but the essential trend of the bull market has not changed.
2.According to the updated trading system of the Turing Wave, the gold failed to break through the resistance level again on Friday. Whether the 5-wave trend will continue depends on the struggle in the area between 1983-1986.
3.Intraday pressure is at 1969-1973, with support at 1945-1950-1958.
The liquidity turmoil in the European and American banking industry continued last week. Although the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank responded quickly to mitigate the individual operational risks of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse, new bank volatility risks continued to emerge. On Friday, Deutsche Bank's credit default swaps surged significantly, and although no obvious catalyst was found, investors' concerns about the health of the European banking industry persisted. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled that week, choosing a middle ground between financial stability and anti-inflation to prevent the market from showing more obvious reverse games. However, Treasury Secretary Yellen, during a Senate hearing, stated that the U.S. banking system is still sound, and the government is not currently considering providing "comprehensive insurance" for all bank deposits, which once again caused market concerns. Although Yellen changed her tone during a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing the next day, stating that the government is prepared to take additional measures to ensure the safety of American depositors' funds if a similar situation to Silicon Valley Bank's occurs in the future, market participants would still prepare for hedging due to unclear policy guidance, and gold assets are expected to continue to benefit and boost the price center.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate hike on Wednesday local time, expressing a cautious attitude towards recent banking crises and indicating that the rate hike is coming to an end. After this rate hike, the target range for the federal funds rate has risen to 4.75%-5%.
On the US Treasury side, the government is prepared to take additional measures to ensure the safety of depositors' funds. During a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on Thursday local time, US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the government is prepared to take additional measures to ensure the safety of depositors' funds. Yellen's statement at the House committee hearing was significantly different from her statement the day before in the Senate.
A hawkish statement by a Fed official adjusted market expectations. St. Louis Fed President and Fed hawk, James Bullard, stated on Friday that the first quarter economic data in the United States was stronger than expected, and he increased his forecast for the year-end interest rates due to the continued strength in the economy. This forecast is based on the assumption that the banking industry pressure will ease. Bullard explained that his previous expectation for the year-end interest rate was 5.375%, and it has now been increased by 25 basis points to 5.625%. Following Bullard's statement, market tightening sentiment was rekindled, and the US dollar quickly rose.
The gold has broken through the support and has turned bearish in the short term.
The bullish outlook on gold is based on several reasons:
1.Gold has been oscillating at high levels, but the essential trend of the bull market has not changed.
2.According to the updated trading system of the Turing Wave, the gold failed to break through the resistance level again on Friday. Whether the 5-wave trend will continue depends on the struggle in the area between 1983-1986.
3.Intraday pressure is at 1969-1973, with support at 1945-1950-1958.
