ZahariKrumov
Short

XAUUSD Full analysis - 1250 maybe?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Ok, so we've seen the rocket being sent to the sky - 700 pips in 7 days... But as we know, once a rocket loses its momentum it's slowing down and eventually comes back down and goes lower than before. This movement was predicted by the bad US data ( worst in 10 years) and the ongoing trade war. Let's look at the gold chart in depth.
1. We saw Gold coming out of the trendline without any retracement.
2. We saw forming a shooting star on the daily chart , but then the bad news boosted it to further heights.
3. Friday rejection on the weekly resistance was shown.
4. On multiple timeframes, RSI is overbought, although Gold doesn't respect RSI that much if we see the previous times when the RSI reached that height it always came back down.
5. Gold didn't break the weekly resistance even with the worst data in the last 10 years.
6. If we look at monthly chart we can see head and shoulders pattern forming all the time. At the moment we are on the height for a right shoulder before the drop .

Let's look at the external facts.
EXY candlesticks match the gold one - a shooting star , long, long, but the uncertainty around Brexit acts both ways - UK and EU.
DXY got rejected on the bottom of the trendline , so retrace is now expected.

In general, I think that in a long long long term we are looking at eventually Gold going over 1400, but now it's not the time. We should be looking into going further depths to around 1250 before making another attempt to break the 1350 resistance.

Comment: 7. US made a deal with Mexico about the tariffs. So based on the fact that Gold started a climb when Trump announced the raise of tariffs on Mexico, I expect a gap of around 1% on Gold to the downside, because the news are all in US favour.
8. China’s facing a problem because of the tariffs, which puts more pressure on their side, so a meeting has been arranged with Trump.
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