GOLD REMAINS RANGE-BOUND
The recent trend of gold has shown the characteristics of killing bulls and bears. However, judging from the daily chart, it is actually a recovery trend after a sharp decline. The repair interval is approximately between 2291 and 2352. This range has constituted a large wave of fluctuations. Although last week's weekly close was negative, the long-term trend still has bull support, especially due to the influence of fundamental geopolitical factors. Therefore, even if an adjustment and repair period is entered in the short term, the long-term bull trend is unlikely to change.
From a technical point of view, the daily MA5 and MA10 have formed a dead cross downward. Although MA5 has turned around, it has not yet formed an obvious bull pattern, so the operation is still mainly high altitude. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are currently running below the long-short dividing line, so short-term operations are still mainly short. Gold prices experienced a small rebound and quickly recovered. The current price is temporarily limited to the range between 2320 and 2340. Since there is no obvious trend in the short term, we should focus on short-term adjustments and repairs. It is recommended that before the gold price breaks through 2352, it is mainly short when approaching this level. If it breaks through, wait for the 2372 line. However, the expected retracement of the previous rebound from 2295 to 2352 did not go as expected. Instead, there was a shock in the cracks, and we need to wait patiently for the position to be broken.
On the whole, today's short-term operation advice for gold is to focus on shorts after a rebound, supplemented by longs after the correction. The upper short-term focus is on the 2340-2343 resistance range, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2300-2305 support range.
The recent trend of gold has shown the characteristics of killing bulls and bears. However, judging from the daily chart, it is actually a recovery trend after a sharp decline. The repair interval is approximately between 2291 and 2352. This range has constituted a large wave of fluctuations. Although last week's weekly close was negative, the long-term trend still has bull support, especially due to the influence of fundamental geopolitical factors. Therefore, even if an adjustment and repair period is entered in the short term, the long-term bull trend is unlikely to change.
From a technical point of view, the daily MA5 and MA10 have formed a dead cross downward. Although MA5 has turned around, it has not yet formed an obvious bull pattern, so the operation is still mainly high altitude. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices are currently running below the long-short dividing line, so short-term operations are still mainly short. Gold prices experienced a small rebound and quickly recovered. The current price is temporarily limited to the range between 2320 and 2340. Since there is no obvious trend in the short term, we should focus on short-term adjustments and repairs. It is recommended that before the gold price breaks through 2352, it is mainly short when approaching this level. If it breaks through, wait for the 2372 line. However, the expected retracement of the previous rebound from 2295 to 2352 did not go as expected. Instead, there was a shock in the cracks, and we need to wait patiently for the position to be broken.
On the whole, today's short-term operation advice for gold is to focus on shorts after a rebound, supplemented by longs after the correction. The upper short-term focus is on the 2340-2343 resistance range, and the lower short-term focus is on the 2300-2305 support range.
Comment:
Gold is currently temporarily maintaining a range of fluctuations on the daily trend, and the price is limited to the range of 2300-2350. On the 4-hour level, the short-term moving average is currently basically stable, which implies that in the short term, gold prices may continue to maintain a volatile trend. However, judging from the hourly trend, after continuous shocks, the price began to gradually move out of the low and narrow range, and the K-line has slowly begun to stand on the short-period moving average. This tends to indicate that in the short-term trend, gold prices may rebound to a certain extent.
Based on the above analysis, investors can consider the following points in their operating strategies: First, since the price of gold is still in a volatile range at the daily level, investors should remain cautious when operating.
Avoid excessively chasing the rise or selling the fall. Secondly, in the 4-hour level shock trend, investors can pay attention to the price breakthrough of the two key positions of 2312 and 2350 as a signal for entry or exit. Finally, in the hourly rebound trend, investors can find suitable entry points for short-term operations, but at the same time, they should also set stop loss points to control potential risks.
Based on the above analysis, investors can consider the following points in their operating strategies: First, since the price of gold is still in a volatile range at the daily level, investors should remain cautious when operating.
Avoid excessively chasing the rise or selling the fall. Secondly, in the 4-hour level shock trend, investors can pay attention to the price breakthrough of the two key positions of 2312 and 2350 as a signal for entry or exit. Finally, in the hourly rebound trend, investors can find suitable entry points for short-term operations, but at the same time, they should also set stop loss points to control potential risks.
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This Wednesday (May 1) will usher in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for April and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%. The Fed is unlikely to provide any new hints on the timing of a policy shift in its statement. However, at the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to be asked whether a rate cut is still possible in June. If Powell does not close the door to a rate cut in June, the initial reaction may trigger the U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply and boosted gold. After the March policy meeting, Powell noted that strong inflation data in January and February could be due to seasonal factors. Market participants will also be closely watching Powell's comments on the inflation outlook. If Powell adopts a concerned tone on recent inflation developments, the dollar could remain resilient against its rivals, limiting gold's upside. Finally, if Powell downplays the disappointing first-quarter GDP data, investors may view this as a hawkish tone, making it difficult for gold to gain upward momentum.