3M (QUARTERLY) CHART
Starting a with the quarterly chart we can get a broader picture of where we are and the levels that are being respected.
Using FiB Extension Notice how the all-time high was bang on a 0.618% FIB extension level. Also, notice how the last quarter candle bounced off the 0.38% level which indicates that the momentum is still strong on the quarterly chart and the recent pullback from Aug 2020 high is just a healthy retracement within the .
If the current quarter candle closes at the end of June above 1900-1910 this will be a strong indication that the next quarter JUL-SEP 2021 could be a strong quarter which could lead to a new all-time high. This will also fall in line with expectations.
The next target Fib level for Gold on the quarterly chart is 2350, which is in line with Goldman Sachs Gold target of $2,300 for 2021. Although 2300 seems like a stretch from the current price, this magnitude of price move over $400 on Gold in a quarter has happened before. Look back at July 2011 which was a move over $440
We also cannot ignore the downside possibilities, the current quarter candle has the rest of June to close and as you know with Gold anything is possible, how the current quarter candle closes will be significant. If the previous quarter high 1859.33 is not taken out by the end of June and we get a quarterly candle close below 1817.00 This will keep the lower levels (1600-1500 )open
Dropping down to a monthly time frame and plotting a Fib from 2015 low to all-time high you will also notice that price bounced off the 0.35% rejection level indicating momentum is also strong on the MN chart.
Last months candle close created a order block on the MN chart, this months candle and the retracement so far looks to be a healthy a retracement to balance the price.
Please note that 1798 is still a possibility, however, the price so far bounced off the 1850 zone indicating the unwillingness to drop further.
Looking at the weekly chart you will notice that we have broken out of the long term and last week we dropped back for a retest of that channel and found strong rejection. This also indicating momentum is strong on the weekly time frame.
Dropping down to the we can see that we are in a D1 ascending and Fridays low was a retest of the long term and the bottom of the D1 .
Finally, if we drop down to the H4 chart you will notice that the price is within a .
So in summary what are we looking for:
Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly and are .
H4 is showing a break of market structure to the downside and we need to look out for either a Lower Low on H4 or a New High.
A Lower Low will indicate a possible 1850 -1798 test and a New High above 1910 will indicate a continuation of the uptrend.
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