Gold- Bigger picture for a 500 pips trade

I'm a swing trader and, in the case of XauUsd trading, I usually look for 3-400 pips, or even more, as targets.
At this moment, for such a trade, things are unclear and Gold is stuck in no man's land with each direction being possible.
However, looking at the bigger picture, we can see that clarification for future direction is pretty easy to spot and this could bring 500 pips profit.
So let's take a look at both scenarios, with confirmation and targets.

1. Bearish scenario:
Since the beginning of May, Gold has traded downwards, with a clear lower top at 1980, followed by a newly formed resistance around 1950, which was confirmed with a Pin Bar candle last week.
Confirmation for the bearish scenario comes with a break under the 1915 zone, in which instance, there is a very high probability for a drop to 1885 (300 pips) but, in my opinion, such a move will lead eventually to a dive, and test of 1855 important support (600 pips)

2. Bullish scenario:
In mid-August, XauUsd made a low at 1885, and a strong 600 pips leg-up followed. The drop from the falling trend line hasn't made a new low and the price reversed from 1900 both psychological and horizontal support given by June and July's lows, and this could very well be a higher low. Here we also need confirmation and this comes with a break above the 1930 zone.

In conclusion, at this moment I'm out of the market and, Gold under 1915 would make me bearish and Gold above 1930 bullish.

Best of luck and have a great trading week!
Mihai Iacob

Comment:

Gold remains in familiar range, but bearish pressure is increasing