Gold- New ATH this month? Analysis and Speculations

I've written many posts and made videos expressing my belief that XauUsd will reach a new all-time high (ATH) this year.
Now, the question is, will it start with all-time highs this month?
In my opinion, it will.

But let's begin with why I'm quite certain that Gold will reach an ATH this year. It's relatively straightforward when you examine the monthly chart.
You don't need to be a technical analyst to see that the trend is clearly upward.
We witnessed a major false break to the downside at the end of 2022, and since then, despite normal corrections, the price has consistently made higher lows.
The monthly candle that just started broke above the technical resistance from 2070.

Of course, anything is possible, but in my view, the chances of a long-term reversal are pretty low now. To clarify, I'm referring to a reversal in the long term, not just corrections.

Now, regarding the next all-time high this month, I'll speculate a bit.
Looking at the same monthly chart, the reversal from November 2022 had 1600 pips, representing a rise of 10%, the second reversal from March 2023 had 2000 pips, which represents 11%, and the third and last monthly reversal candle had 1900 pips, which is also 11%.
So, we can speculate that this month's candle will also rise by around 10%.
Calculating this at the current price, we have around 2000 pips. With the month starting at 2040, we reach 2240.

Moreover, if we consider that the reversal actually started at the bottom of last month's Pin Bar, which is at 1980, and add 2000 pips, we also arrive at 2180, which is also an ATH.

In conclusion, while I don't have a crystal ball, I expect an ATH this month.

However, more importantly, I WILL NOT SELL INTO THIS RALLY, ONLY BUY ON DIPS.

Best of luck!
Mihai Iacob

Comment:

Powell's speech is in 5 minutes at the time of writing and XauUsd is at ATH
The 2110-2120 zone should hold for the overall strong bullish scenario to remain intact.

Comment:

And we have it!!!!
And we also have 1100 pips rise this months.
900 to go:)

Comment:

At the beginning of the month, I posed two questions:

Would we reach a new all-time high this month?
If so, would this rise be 2000 pips?
Both questions were answered affirmatively. We not only experienced one, but three consecutive all-time highs this month (calculated on a daily basis as ATH-correction, followed by a new ATH).

Secondly, indeed, the monthly candle recorded a rise of 1920 pips (starting at 2041 and closing at 2233).

In conclusion, when analyzing charts, it's often observed that history, while not perfectly mirrored, tends to rhyme. Most importantly, we should trade with the broader picture in mind.

Best of luck and Happy Easter!