XBTFX

Gold: a tricky moment

OANDA:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Inflation figures for the US were published during the previous week, showing that the inflation in August was modestly above market estimate. Although the FOMC meeting will be held in a week ahead, still many economists and analysts are of the opinion that the Fed will not make a decision on further increase of interest rates based on August data. On the other hand, the price of oil is modestly picking up to higher grounds, which might negatively impact government efforts to cope with inflation in the last quarter of this year. Certainly, the week ahead might bring some volatility back on the markets, in case that there are any surprises from the Fed`s side.

The price of gold was testing the support line at $1.920 during the whole week, while at Friday`s trading session it managed to revert back to the higher grounds, ending the week at level of $1.923. Highest weekly level reached was $1.930. Charts are showing that buying orders are back on the gold market. This also might be a sort of pre-FOMC positioning of market participants. RSI continues to struggle to break the 50 line, in order to clearly head toward the overbought side of the market. Moving average of 50 days is moving close to the MA200 counterpart, however, it could not be clearly noted if the cross is going to occur in the coming period.

Current charts are pointing on some potential toward the upside. However, it could be a tricky moment. If the price of gold manages to clearly move beyond the $1.930 level, its next target will be the $1.950 resistance line. Still, if such a move does not occur, then reversal back toward the $1.900 level will be triggered. At this moment, there are equal probabilities for each potential price development.

Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
USD: Building Permits for August, FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference

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