It will not be an easy week as gold is back in range. It has already formed inside bars on higher time frames. As this is the last week of the month, I do not think it will break the consolidation.
The FOMC has left a liquidity gap and gold is likely to fill it before moving in any direction.
The analysis below shows that despite the hawkish FED, gold still has some bullish potential.
Macroeconomics
The FED paused rates, but they were very hawkish that rates will remain high for an extended period of time. Nothing new, but the market reacted strongly to the news. The future projections from the dot plot show that we can expect another hike this year. It also shows that rates will remain at these levels next year.
Inflation has fallen sharply, but in the last three months it has been on the run and oil prices have risen again. So far, there is nothing to suggest that inflation is under control, at least not to the 2% target.
The unemployment rate is slowly rising, but obviously not enough.
Top-Down Analysis
On the monthly time frame, we can see how the price was rejected from this level several times. There was also bullish manipulation. The current monthly candle went down for a retest and was rejected. However, it is also inside bar, suggesting a larger consolidation.
Nothing happened on the weekly timeframe. Two dojis, some people might take it as a bullish sign, others as a bearish one. I prefer to wait.
On a daily time frame, gold has formed a bearish manipulation, but due to the nature of the price action, I will be cautious.
On the 4H timeframe we may see the triangle. In my opinion, gold will go down for a retest of the 4H negation and come back to test the FOMC release level.
COT Reports
It seems that the professionals are more bullish than bearish. Keep that in mind.
US Yields
2Y yields at 2006 levels. Overall very bullish. Gold is relatively stable (above 1900) even though yields are at record levels.
Very soon yields could form a new HH and gold should start to rise again.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is rising, still in its wedge. The last few days have been bullish despite a hawkish FED.
XAUUSD vs GDX
It seems that GDX is trading in a choppy bullish channel.
The FOMC has left a liquidity gap and gold is likely to fill it before moving in any direction.
The analysis below shows that despite the hawkish FED, gold still has some bullish potential.
Macroeconomics
The FED paused rates, but they were very hawkish that rates will remain high for an extended period of time. Nothing new, but the market reacted strongly to the news. The future projections from the dot plot show that we can expect another hike this year. It also shows that rates will remain at these levels next year.
The unemployment rate is slowly rising, but obviously not enough.
Top-Down Analysis
On the monthly time frame, we can see how the price was rejected from this level several times. There was also bullish manipulation. The current monthly candle went down for a retest and was rejected. However, it is also inside bar, suggesting a larger consolidation.
Nothing happened on the weekly timeframe. Two dojis, some people might take it as a bullish sign, others as a bearish one. I prefer to wait.
On a daily time frame, gold has formed a bearish manipulation, but due to the nature of the price action, I will be cautious.
On the 4H timeframe we may see the triangle. In my opinion, gold will go down for a retest of the 4H negation and come back to test the FOMC release level.
COT Reports
It seems that the professionals are more bullish than bearish. Keep that in mind.
US Yields
2Y yields at 2006 levels. Overall very bullish. Gold is relatively stable (above 1900) even though yields are at record levels.
Very soon yields could form a new HH and gold should start to rise again.
Gold vs Silver
Silver is rising, still in its wedge. The last few days have been bullish despite a hawkish FED.
XAUUSD vs GDX
It seems that GDX is trading in a choppy bullish channel.
Strategy:
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub