Expectations for interest rate cuts are high, can gold get what

Yesterday was the Christmas we look forward to once a year. The international spot and foreign exchange markets are basically closed. Since this weekend is the end of the year again, I estimate that the fluctuations this week will be relatively limited. If there is no special news, most market trends will be volatile.



Of course, for products with clear trends currently, those that rise will still rise (US stocks), and those that fall will still fall (A shares). No significant changes are expected over the Christmas period.



Regarding the situation in the Middle East, Hamas and Jihad refused to give up control of the Gaza Strip in exchange for a long-term ceasefire. In other words, a short-term truce is impossible, let alone an end to the conflict.



But after all, Gaza is a small area with little strategic depth, and Israel cannot occupy it for a long time. After the fighting ends, a quick withdrawal is inevitable, so there is a high probability that the war will end in the foreseeable first quarter of next year. Considering that the U.S. election next year will reduce support to Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine are also likely to negotiate a truce by then.



The cooling of the two sensitive areas will greatly suppress the risk aversion sentiment in the market.



In addition, regarding the issue of interest rate cuts in the United States that everyone is concerned about, I think the current market has basically repeated the pricing of five interest rate cuts next year. Once the interest rate cuts are less than expected, or even no interest rate cuts, the current market value will be significantly revised.



In terms of precious metals,



After gold prices opened higher in early trading last Friday, the Asian market remained volatile and could not continue to fall below, while the European and American markets rose all the way to the 2070 line. Although it fell back in late trading, it maintained its long position of moving up the lows and moving up the highs.



After the weekend, today's market is at a discount as before, with the same gap and high opening, the same failure to fill the gap, and the same continued upward trend. The only difference is that gold prices have not yet reached a new high today, and the pressure near 2070 is still valid.



Judging from the indicators, the moving averages from the weekly chart to the hourly level are arranged in bullish positions, but signals of overbought divergence begin to appear below the hourly level. When the volatility is low, repeated shocks are prone to occur, and it is not recommended to chase the rise too much. You can wait for the intraday pullback to enter the market to buy, and pay attention to the stop signal near the support 2050--55 below.



Of course, since it is close to the historical high area, if the gold price continues to rise, you can try to place short orders. Upper pressure 2070--88



Personally, I still think that the 2144 high is not so easy to break through, and the probability of wide shocks in the near future is higher.


The fall after hitting the second high point is likely to lead to a huge downward space step by step.


This also echoes the fundamentals we mentioned above.


If you agree with my point of view, please leave a message and tell me, I wish you all a Merry Christmas

Trade active:

Gold rises in line with my analysis

Trade active:

Wait patiently for gold to adjust

Trade active:

I said that gold will rise and we need to wait patiently. Do you believe it now?