The Fed suddenly made dovish remarks, and gold was decisively bu

Once war breaks out, gold will rise. Can this risk aversion completely bring gold bulls out of the quagmire of decline? Heading towards 1900, 2000, or even a new all-time high?



The last time gold was affected by geopolitical risks was on February 24 last year, when conflict broke out between Ukraine and Russia. The price of gold rose from 1900 to 2070, an increase of $170.



Taking history as a guide, can this "Palestinian-Israeli war" bring about an overall rise in gold?



We can see that the war between Ukraine and Russia triggered a surge in gold at that time. It was during the Fed's monetary easing cycle that a dual push led to gold's surge. Since the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy on March 10 last year, gold bulls have never returned. .



Last weekend, Hamas suddenly launched a sneak attack on Israel. This is the sixth large-scale frontal conflict and the largest armed attack launched by Israel since its founding. Safe-haven buying triggered a $20 jump in gold prices at the open on Monday.



In the evening, as Federal Reserve officials continued to make dovish remarks, suggesting that the November interest rate hike may be shelved, the news immediately exploded. The U.S. 10-year Treasury bond fell sharply -3%, and the three major stock indexes also rose sharply. Importantly, the price of gold has increased by another US$20 from 1845, hitting US$1,865 per ounce in early trading. Congratulations to those on the long side



On Monday, everyone knew that the Israeli war was good for gold, but there was still some concern about raising interest rates. Now, Fed officials, led by Powell, have taken a stance. There may be plans to raise interest rates from the end of this year into next year, but they will be put on hold in the near future. Just keep interest rates high. Raising interest rates is to curb inflation, while solving inflation is to stabilize the economy. If interest rates are raised too much, it will directly lead to economic collapse. Then the hike is not a kitchen knife in the chef's hand, but a burger. It is a sword that kills people in war.



Next, let’s talk about the main points.



In early trading, gold broke through yesterday's intraday high of 1957, and the new upper and lower transition position fell to 1857-1856. However, it should be noted that another small support level is at 1860, which will become a support point to promote the rise. , a bit like the support of 1845 yesterday, followed by 1835, all waiting for 1835. Some even wanted to go short first and then go long, but ended up going short directly.



The price of gold is now around 1864. If it continues to trade sideways, it will take off with the support of 1860. The upper limit of adjustment is 1856-57. Don't think about the bigger picture. No matter how big it is, it can't get up. It has broken through 1843 on Monday, and there was no retreat before it broke. This is a long-term opportunity, not a short-term opportunity. Therefore, the area that gold price can enter today is between 1860-1856, with defense at 1850, and above it can look at 1875-1880-1885. Note that 1885 is a strong support point at the daily level in August.




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Gold begins to rise after adjustment

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Don't worry, the upward trend remains unchanged, wait patiently

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After waiting for so long, gold is starting to rise