XAUUSD Gold - short initial Bat reaction
Last week we had a weekly shooting star at Bat's PRZ. This is promising development for Gold bears but it still needs a confirmation by closing next week below last weekly candlestick.
This is a RISKY trade since we just hit PRZ and going through initial profit taking after sizable rally. Target price 1 for initial re-trace will be $1287 - 0.382 fib and TP2 if we get lucky will be rising wedge target = $1278 ish.
Note, there is a good chance that Gold price will re-test PRZ and send more time sideways in that price area.
This is a RISKY trade since we just hit PRZ and going through initial profit taking after sizable rally. Target price 1 for initial re-trace will be $1287 - 0.382 fib and TP2 if we get lucky will be rising wedge target = $1278 ish.
Note, there is a good chance that Gold price will re-test PRZ and send more time sideways in that price area.
Comment:
Forgot to mention. Safe long entry is on a break (and ideally re-test) of 1333. Auto exit target is 0.886 fib $1343. I will create separate idea for it.
Comment:
Important development emerged. We are about to break 1321 long waited event. Ideally we want to enter short on break AND RE-TEST if it resists to be sure.
Trade active:
Short trade activated. SL at 1321.
Comment:
Moved SL to break even, so what ever happens no loss.
Comment:
BE SL got hit. At this point entry requires a babysitting. On and off until direction settles. Execution of a trade is a phase in Harmonic trading. Everyone has different approach to it and depends on traders tolerance to shakes. I would rather focus in my ideas on identification of potential trade setups and their targets.
Comment:
Finally direction is showing up after morning shake :).
Comment:
Price has made half of our move. Time to make nessary actions to ensure profits and more importantly ensure that profits will not turn into losses. So place SLs or setup trailing SLs at least at break even. Managing position inside the trade is as important as indentifying the trade and entering.
Comment:
BB analysis confirming our target.
Comment:
This drop is fast we are only a couple dollars away from our TP1. It is time to think how to secure the profits. I would advise take a portion of your position at the price you comfortable with and let the rest run with trailing SL in attempt to maximize the profit and exit on SL hit.
There is no guarantee that weekly 20SMA will hold it though so leaving a portion with trailing SL can be beneficial.
There is no guarantee that weekly 20SMA will hold it though so leaving a portion with trailing SL can be beneficial.
Comment:
... and congratulations to those who followed this successful trade!
Trade closed manually:
This week ended with "panic profit taking" drop on Friday. Prolonged red body of current week confirms our Bat. Weekly candlestick pattern is confirmed Shooting Star.
If you managed your position properly you should already be with at least $20-25 dollars in profit.
I believe that price will drop a little bit further BUT regardless of my believes my job as a trader is to secure this profits with proper exit strategy, so even if price goes up immediately I will collect them.
Thus, this trade can be already considered as done we have done the following:
1) Identified the opportunity using Harmonic Bat pattern.
2) Executed relatively safe entry at shooting star candle low $1321
The last step that left out is
3) Secure and maximize profits from this move.
What next, obviously this weekly Bat has move profits to give but there are 2 possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Price will continue dropping deeper without looking back. In this case we already have a position with trailing SL and we will let it run until SL get hit.
Scenario 2: Price returns back to PRZ for more distribution followed by deeper drop.
For the second scenario price can easily exceed our entry point, so we must exit way before this happen as discussed above. Since we already got confirmation of our Bat pattern, we can relatively safe hunt shorts at the very top of the Bat in PRZ 1340-1365 area. I will create separate idea if scenario 2 happens.
I am closing this idea since there is nothing to do in it. We will exit by SL hit automatically in any case (that is my preference).
If you managed your position properly you should already be with at least $20-25 dollars in profit.
I believe that price will drop a little bit further BUT regardless of my believes my job as a trader is to secure this profits with proper exit strategy, so even if price goes up immediately I will collect them.
Thus, this trade can be already considered as done we have done the following:
1) Identified the opportunity using Harmonic Bat pattern.
2) Executed relatively safe entry at shooting star candle low $1321
The last step that left out is
3) Secure and maximize profits from this move.
What next, obviously this weekly Bat has move profits to give but there are 2 possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: Price will continue dropping deeper without looking back. In this case we already have a position with trailing SL and we will let it run until SL get hit.
Scenario 2: Price returns back to PRZ for more distribution followed by deeper drop.
For the second scenario price can easily exceed our entry point, so we must exit way before this happen as discussed above. Since we already got confirmation of our Bat pattern, we can relatively safe hunt shorts at the very top of the Bat in PRZ 1340-1365 area. I will create separate idea if scenario 2 happens.
I am closing this idea since there is nothing to do in it. We will exit by SL hit automatically in any case (that is my preference).
Trade closed: target reached:
Target reached. SUCCESS.
BUT on 4h chart we have a new development - smaller POTENTIAL Bearish Bat that gives us an opportunity to long trade its BAMM move. It also give us and opportunity to make a much better short position in 1341-1365 range (on weakness only).