After the fiasco of the 800 pip drop last week (which we caught), we may see a pullback this week. Overall, my bias is still bearish, but gold is approaching an old manipulation area where it could bounce.
Let us dig even deeper!
Macroeconomics
FED
Nothing has changed from last week. The hawkish FED was the catalyst for the appr. 100 dollar drop in gold. Banks are selling and are likely to continue to do so for a while at least.
Inflation
Inflation rose last month (CPI, Core CPI, PCE), giving the FED room to keep rates high.
Employment
This week we will see NFP and ADP. We will comment on them next week when we have the data.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly TF
I do not see any manipulation in this area. What that means to me is that the price should continue to fall.
Weekly TF
Gold reached a double manipulation. It also left a liquidity void last week. My view is that the price will bounce from this area and go higher to close at least part of the recent imbalance.
Gold is approaching an old low which, combined with last year's uptrend, gives me another sign of a short-term rally. The price action is too choppy to define a strong bullish trend. Gold has been consolidating for 3 years and the 1800 area is the middle of this range.
Daily
1980 seems to be a good area for a reversal, as the price was manipulated many times.
Swing projection
Last year we saw a very strong October, but the rally started in the last few days. Just when the FED raised rates with a very hawkish narrative. October may end as a bullish month, but it is too early to think about a rally. We need manipulation.
Benchmark
Gold is red everywhere. I remain bearish until we see bullish manipulation.
COT Reports
It is very interesting that the professionals are very bearish on gold and a bit bullish on Silver. This divergence is not enough to change my bearish bias.
US Yields
Yields are very bullish. Until they rise, gold will fall.
XAUUSD vs GDX
The latest divergence has definitely moved the price - around $100. No bullish signs.
Gold vs Silver
Strong daily manipulation on silver. It seems to be breaking the bullish channel.
Gold was also manipulated.
Elliot Wave
It appears that wave C is forming. How far gold will fall is not clear, but for now the projection is bearish.
Wyckoff
I am working on this theory. The chart is very similar to the standard accumulation pattern.
Momentum
It seems to me that gold is a bit oversold - it has reached the lower band, the RSI is on the lower border. Don't forget the imbalance from last week and the manipulation area that gold reached.
I think we will see gold bounce back this week.
Let us dig even deeper!
Macroeconomics
FED
Nothing has changed from last week. The hawkish FED was the catalyst for the appr. 100 dollar drop in gold. Banks are selling and are likely to continue to do so for a while at least.
Inflation
Inflation rose last month (CPI, Core CPI, PCE), giving the FED room to keep rates high.
Employment
This week we will see NFP and ADP. We will comment on them next week when we have the data.
Top-Down Analysis
Monthly TF
Weekly TF
Gold is approaching an old low which, combined with last year's uptrend, gives me another sign of a short-term rally. The price action is too choppy to define a strong bullish trend. Gold has been consolidating for 3 years and the 1800 area is the middle of this range.
Daily
Swing projection
Last year we saw a very strong October, but the rally started in the last few days. Just when the FED raised rates with a very hawkish narrative. October may end as a bullish month, but it is too early to think about a rally. We need manipulation.
Benchmark
Gold is red everywhere. I remain bearish until we see bullish manipulation.
COT Reports
It is very interesting that the professionals are very bearish on gold and a bit bullish on Silver. This divergence is not enough to change my bearish bias.
US Yields
Yields are very bullish. Until they rise, gold will fall.
XAUUSD vs GDX
The latest divergence has definitely moved the price - around $100. No bullish signs.
Gold vs Silver
Strong daily manipulation on silver. It seems to be breaking the bullish channel.
Gold was also manipulated.
Elliot Wave
It appears that wave C is forming. How far gold will fall is not clear, but for now the projection is bearish.
Wyckoff
Momentum
It seems to me that gold is a bit oversold - it has reached the lower band, the RSI is on the lower border. Don't forget the imbalance from last week and the manipulation area that gold reached.
I think we will see gold bounce back this week.
Strategy:
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub
-Macroeconomics
-Market manipulation
-Liquidity calculation
-Economic and price action indicators
-MTF Pivot points
*Fundamental analysis
*Technical analys
*Quantitative analysis
Free group:
t.me/serpentforexclub