Lingrid | Gold: What To Expect In 2024?

This year was full of events. Next year is also likely to be full of unpredictable events that will affect the markets. What to watch out for and what to do? We can only make a general prediction based on some of the factors that may affect the gold price in 2024. It is important to note that this analysis is based on current information and assumptions, and actual events in 2024 may vary significantly.

Gold prices can be affected by many factors including economic conditions, 100% geopolitical events, central bank policies and investor sentiment. Here are a few possible scenarios that could affect gold prices in 2024:

1. Economic growth: If the global economy continues to grow at a moderate pace in 2024, gold prices may remain relatively stable as investors may have less incentive to seek safe-haven assets such as gold.

2. Inflation: If inflation remains low or stable, gold prices may not experience significant increases as investors may turn to other investments in search of higher returns, such as stocks.

3. Interest Rates: If central banks continue to raise interest rates to combat inflation, gold prices may decline as higher interest rates may make non-income producing assets such as gold less attractive. On the other hand, this could be a signal that the economy is still not recovering and gold could become a safe haven, which in turn would affect the price.

4. Geopolitical Events: Unforeseen geopolitical events such as conflicts or political upheaval may cause investors to seek safer assets such as gold, leading to higher prices. I think there could be more military conflicts. Given that there is growing tension in the middle east.

5. Currency fluctuations: If the U.S. dollar weakens, gold prices may rise, as gold is usually priced in dollars and becomes more attractive to investors when the dollar is weak. That is, the FED will affect the price of gold as much as geopolitical events.

6. Supply and Demand: The last one is changes in gold production or consumer demand for gold can also affect prices. It does not affect as much as the above items. But still it does matter.
Given these factors, it is difficult to give a specific forecast for gold prices in 2024. However, it is likely that gold prices will continue to be affected by economic conditions, inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events and currency fluctuations.

What does the technical analysis tell us?
We have a repeating pattern. We can see a quick fall and a pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, then a continuation of the fall. It should be noted that the price closed below the level where the price bounced 3 times. Perhaps the price does not have enough fuel to go higher. If we look at the dollar index, we can see that it is at a support level that a rebound from it would affect the gold price negatively.

On the monthly chart, price never closed above the 2000 level. But we have the month of November and December which closed above this level. It says that in the long term we can expect a bullish move above 2100. However, the last candle is a doji, which means uncertainty at the level of counteraction. But in the short term, we can expect a pullback from the resistance level to the support level to 2020 - 2030.

Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻

Comment:

The price perfectly fulfills my last idea. XAUUSD fell from resistance. The gold market bounced off the key resistance zone. formed a double top. It tested the resistance twice but did not make a higher high, which suggests that the bulls do not have enough strength to update the highs. The price broke and closed below the 2070 level, taking out the trendline liquidity. On the daily timeframe we can clearly see the price closed below the level where price made impulse leg downward. Also it formd long tailed bar: bearish rejection bar. I expect price to restest the support zone at 2037-2030. My goal is support level at 2043

Comment:

The market is testing the resistance zone after a downward move, and XAUUSD created a long-tailed bar at resistance. The market could not uptade its highs, and there is a chance that it will go down to retest the previous low. I expect the price to go down because the market is rejecting the zone at 2073–2076. On the lower timeframe, the price action formed a double top. It suggests we might see a rebound and a bearish move. If the market breaks through this resistance zone, the next opportunity is going to be at the 2080 level. My goal is the support level of around 2061.740

Comment:

The price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It went straight down from the resistance zone and hit the target. XAUUSD broke through the support level and updated its lows after breaking out of the support level. It broke the previous low but did not fix below it. It suggests that we can expect some sideways movement. I think the market might go down to test the next support if it rejects the resistance and upward trendline. Furthermore, there's a bearish rejection long-tailed bar on the daily timeframe. In the best-case scenario, I expect the price to go down and break the daily low. The worst-case scenario is that the price ranges and moves upward to retest the resistance at 2088. My goal is the support level at 2052.00

Trade closed: target reached