GOLD 10 DAY TREND INDICATOR TEST
INTRO - This is a test of my unproven IRL & IMA trend engine at 1-hour bar for 10 days. This is for testing purposes only.
DETAILS - Gold survived 2 selling zones (red arrows) for Thursday and Friday, closing above critical 2011 support. This has kept the gold comeback route alive, but only barely. The 10-day trend picture suggests gold will survive the next 5 selling zones (black arrows) and "regain bullish position". This does not mean breakout position. Current trend picture suggests another 40 days to "regain breakout position", or the second week of April. This means that any rally before 03/20 FOMC would - without a doubt - get shot down once again.
DETAILS - Gold survived 2 selling zones (red arrows) for Thursday and Friday, closing above critical 2011 support. This has kept the gold comeback route alive, but only barely. The 10-day trend picture suggests gold will survive the next 5 selling zones (black arrows) and "regain bullish position". This does not mean breakout position. Current trend picture suggests another 40 days to "regain breakout position", or the second week of April. This means that any rally before 03/20 FOMC would - without a doubt - get shot down once again.
Comment:
MONDAY - Monday is the most critical of the next 5 selling zones. A retest of 2000 is highly likely. Passing that re-test is 60/40 - 70/30.
Comment:
Comment:
2/18, 6:21 PM ET, BUT THE NUMBERS ARE DECEIVING!
a) how so?
b) first BTC market cap is 1 trillion vs gold's 13 trillion
c) if you take half of BTC market cap and add it to gold, gold would be only be up $75
d) so 2090 instead of 2015, not a world of difference
a) how so?
b) first BTC market cap is 1 trillion vs gold's 13 trillion
c) if you take half of BTC market cap and add it to gold, gold would be only be up $75
d) so 2090 instead of 2015, not a world of difference
Comment:
e) why bring that up?
f) I used to think that the powers that be would one day cancel bitcoin
g) why?
h) bc it's not government-backed
i) but I realize now that bitcoin was never supposed to compete with the USD
j) but the virtue of competition, bitcoin would weaken speculation in precious metals
k) so it would actually STRENGTHEN RELATIVE VALUE OF FIAT CURRENCIES
f) I used to think that the powers that be would one day cancel bitcoin
g) why?
h) bc it's not government-backed
i) but I realize now that bitcoin was never supposed to compete with the USD
j) but the virtue of competition, bitcoin would weaken speculation in precious metals
k) so it would actually STRENGTHEN RELATIVE VALUE OF FIAT CURRENCIES
Comment:
7:13 PM ET Dark blue is winning.
a) from here to Monday afternoon
b) not much more variation expected after that
a) from here to Monday afternoon
b) not much more variation expected after that
Comment:
c) again, just swinging to 2020:
Comment:
d) high Monday morning 2032.xx before check down
Comment:
e) that's a wrap for Sunday night
Comment:
f) hold on, runaway high Monday morning is at 35-38
g) not likely, just something you have to watch for
g) not likely, just something you have to watch for
Comment:
8:13 PM ET 2020.xx doesn't that mean chart at top is dead on arrival?
A) no, we will chalk that as a misread on my part until tomorrow afternoon
B) from first look, I don't think that matters for the rest of the chart
C) the amount of editing that went into the rest of this chart is ridiculous
D) it would be a crime if the rest of it was wrong
E) my only concern is, is it too slow?
A) no, we will chalk that as a misread on my part until tomorrow afternoon
B) from first look, I don't think that matters for the rest of the chart
C) the amount of editing that went into the rest of this chart is ridiculous
D) it would be a crime if the rest of it was wrong
E) my only concern is, is it too slow?
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
a) for chart above, specifically for tomorrow morning...
b) I can't say what the shape of the move to tomorrow AM is supposed to look like
c) but odds favor the ending to be SPIKE UP THEN RUGPULL
d) my IMA indicator says the odds now favor a high at 2038
e) which means the runaway is 2045
f) I am still sticking with 2032-2038, but I have specific reasons for that
g) if it hits 2045, then this test would be a failure
b) I can't say what the shape of the move to tomorrow AM is supposed to look like
c) but odds favor the ending to be SPIKE UP THEN RUGPULL
d) my IMA indicator says the odds now favor a high at 2038
e) which means the runaway is 2045
f) I am still sticking with 2032-2038, but I have specific reasons for that
g) if it hits 2045, then this test would be a failure
Comment:
h) yeah, 2037.5 is what it looks like, good night
Comment:
02/19, 11:05 AM ET, President's Day, markets closed, futures open
a) overnight price made a run for 23 twice and failed
b) here's what that looks like before tonight
a) overnight price made a run for 23 twice and failed
b) here's what that looks like before tonight
Comment:
c) so this method does not eliminate the need for updates for every 4-6 hours
d) so no value there
e) the only possible value left is performance after 200 bars, which 8 trading days from now
f) having failed twice to get the first move or 16 hours right, let's wrap this up now
g) that completes this test, have a good one
d) so no value there
e) the only possible value left is performance after 200 bars, which 8 trading days from now
f) having failed twice to get the first move or 16 hours right, let's wrap this up now
g) that completes this test, have a good one
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