NFP trade ⚡️
Guys I guess you are ready to trade NFP today. Moreover you could have already notice that I’m a big fan of Gold and today’s trade is no different. I’m going to trade NFP on Gold.
First observation - Gold swaying near 1550 looks quite balanced and prepared for the event. Something tells me there should be some good reaction we have to be ready to catch it!
So basically my forecast of today’s NFP figure is positive surprise (above consensus of 164K) and hence negative reaction of Gold. In the very primitive but still working reasoning, strong NFP is a sign of economic expansion => hawkish Federal Reserve = > stronger Dollar 💪. The Fed made it clear it's done with rate cuts so basically fundamental bias is now to the upside.
Why I think that December NFP is going to be strong:
- Initial Jobless Claims: Very good December downside trend which means less and less people claim unemployment benefits in the US.
- Non-Manufacturing ISM: 55.5 points vs 54 points expected. Recall also that 80% of labor force work in the services industry in the US.
- Positive expectations from the signing of the trade deal between US and China. For firms it is a strong signal to increase hiring, Capex.
- Unusually mild weather in December - more hiring in construction sector.
The trade setup 💰
Sell XAUUSD from current levels ($1550)
Take Profit - 1540.50
Stop loss: 1553.50
Risk reward ratio: 1 : 3
Please support my sh*t with likes!!! :D
Guys I guess you are ready to trade NFP today. Moreover you could have already notice that I’m a big fan of Gold and today’s trade is no different. I’m going to trade NFP on Gold.
First observation - Gold swaying near 1550 looks quite balanced and prepared for the event. Something tells me there should be some good reaction we have to be ready to catch it!
So basically my forecast of today’s NFP figure is positive surprise (above consensus of 164K) and hence negative reaction of Gold. In the very primitive but still working reasoning, strong NFP is a sign of economic expansion => hawkish Federal Reserve = > stronger Dollar 💪. The Fed made it clear it's done with rate cuts so basically fundamental bias is now to the upside.
Why I think that December NFP is going to be strong:
- Initial Jobless Claims: Very good December downside trend which means less and less people claim unemployment benefits in the US.
- Non-Manufacturing ISM: 55.5 points vs 54 points expected. Recall also that 80% of labor force work in the services industry in the US.
- Positive expectations from the signing of the trade deal between US and China. For firms it is a strong signal to increase hiring, Capex.
- Unusually mild weather in December - more hiring in construction sector.
The trade setup 💰
Sell XAUUSD from current levels ($1550)
Take Profit - 1540.50
Stop loss: 1553.50
Risk reward ratio: 1 : 3
Please support my sh*t with likes!!! :D
